US Economics Weekly Recovery in business investment still has further to run The rapid pace of business investment growth so far this year may be unsustainable, but there is little reason to fear anything worse than a modest slowdown any time soon. The near-term prospects for... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGM prices got ahead of themselves After years of oversupply, there are now clear signs that the PGM market is tightening. Falling mine supply should help the market to rebalance, but a higher rate of recycling could put a cap on... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Indian industrial production growth slowed a touch but remained healthy in September, providing further evidence that the disruption caused by the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) at... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China increasing foreign access but still stacking deck Today’s announcement that China is removing foreign ownership restrictions in its financial sector is encouraging but it is unclear when this will happen. It is also unlikely that foreign-owned firms... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in Brazilian inflation from 2.5% y/y in September to 2.7% y/y in October, is likely to be the start of a gradual upwards trend. Nevertheless, we expect inflation to remain below the central... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will high levels of debt weigh on global growth? Although debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies remain high by historical standards, they are at least on sustainable trajectories. Accordingly, fiscal austerity and household deleveraging appear to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Sep.) The flurry of activity data suggests that the industrial sector is helping to provide some offset to the consumer slowdown. However, net trade probably dragged on GDP growth in Q3. 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) We think it’s on borrowed time but the still-buoyant property market supported another quarter of strong household spending for Hong Kong in Q3 which helped offset weakness elsewhere in the economy. 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.) Today’s French and Italian industrial production data, along with other national data released earlier in the week, suggest that euro-zone output fell by 0.6% in September. But forward-looking... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona office outlook to brighten again next year Following the Spanish government’s decision to invoke Article 155 of the constitution and take control of the regional administration of Catalonia, the political temperature in the region has tempered... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big a deal are oil prices for the MSCI EM Index? The recent increase in the price of oil has added further fuel to the rally in emerging market (EM) equities. Although we think that some of this support will unwind as oil prices slip back, we still... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp decline in inflation over the past 15 months has largely run its course, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. We think that core inflation will remain well below the Norges Bank’s 2.5%... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s business environment: A look behind the numbers An improved performance by several African economies – notably Nigeria – on the World Bank’s Doing Business index has resulted in some very positive headlines. But we would caution against assigning... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate – by 25bp to 3.25% – caught most by surprise but was in line with our forecast, and we expect further easing over the coming months... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’ With Venezuela’s state-owned oil company having reportedly failed to make a principal payment on a bond that has now matured, credit default swaps are likely to be triggered on Friday. This is sure to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q3 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell in Q3 to the lowest level in 8 years, continuing the downward trend so far in 2017. Weak jewellery demand and stalling ETF inflows were the main factors behind the decline... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
