Capital Daily Is the recent sell-off in the markets a sign of things to come? 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs? The jump in oil prices over the past couple of weeks doesn’t radically alter the outlook for EMs. However, if sustained, it could exacerbate concerns we already have about some parts of the emerging... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Annual house price growth has peaked The rise in annual house price growth to a three-year high of 6.1% in August raises the prospect that our forecast for a 6% gain by the end of the year will prove too conservative. But, with credit... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will inflation ever pick up again? We think the average inflation rate in advanced economies will remain lower than it was in the pre-crisis period for the foreseeable future, for several reasons. In some economies, there is more spare... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3) Russian GDP growth in Q3 was softer than expected, at 1.8% y/y, and we have revised down our growth forecast for 2017 as whole as a result (to 1.8%). However, we expect growth to pick up next year and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated in October, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. As such, there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan benefit from the TPP minus the US? Even after the withdrawal of the US, the TPP remains an ambitious free trade agreement that will lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers for Japanese firms in a number of important trading partners and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Political risks boost oil prices The price of oil jumped this week on rising tensions in the Middle East, which also lent some support to the gold price. In contrast, the prices of industrial metals fell, after strong gains a week... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Two week window for UK to make “clarifications” In the latest round of negotiations the EU hardened its stance on the sequencing of talks and the “clarifications” it needs from the UK – particularly on Northern Ireland – for “sufficient progress”... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will regional trade agreements boost growth? Almost 10 months after Donald Trump pulled the US out of negotiations to set up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), ministers from the remaining 11 countries are trying to salvage something from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada likely on hold until well into 2018 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech earlier this week was too dismissive of the current weakness of underlying inflation, although that isn’t a surprise given the Bank’s interest rate hikes... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite the fall in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to 97.8 in November, from 100.7, it remains close to its highest level in many years, suggesting that real consumption is set... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the rise in US high-yield credit spreads a worrying sign? 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
