Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Oct.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.9% y/y in October was driven entirely by a sharp pick-up in food inflation, and by our estimates, core inflation eased a little. As a result, while... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank turns hawkish Malaysia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today, but the more hawkish tone of the statement suggests that monetary policy tightening may soon come back onto the agenda. We now... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer sector in good shape heading into Q4 The monthly data suggest that consumer spending was behind the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But September’s rise in retail sales provided a strong starting point for Q4. And the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press release seems to confirm that the Council is becoming more hawkish. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch High stocks remain a problem for cotton After a strong start to the year, the price of cotton has drifted lower since. In this Commodities Watch, we will discuss the main drivers of the cotton market and how they will affect prices in 2018... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp rise in US demand for products is in line with other indicators showing a pick-up in consumption recently. But record levels of oil production will delay the wider oil market rebalancing. 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Higher mortgage rates and lack of stock hits activity Mortgage interest rate are rising gradually which, coupled with a lack of inventory, has meant mortgage applications for home purchase resumed their downward trend in October. That implies home sales... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should we worry about a housing crash in Norway? Recent declines in Norwegian house prices have caused some concern, but we think that the worst fears are overblown. After all, prices are falling for the “right” reasons. And we do not expect a wave... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on developments in Saudi Arabia Events in Saudi Arabia since the weekend have potentially significant, but also complex, implications both for domestic policymaking and the wider region. In this Update, we try to make sense of... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected pick-up in Chilean inflation in October is likely to ease fears among the central bank’s Board that below-target inflation is becoming entrenched. Even so, with inflation... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are the world’s banks back to normal? If “normal” means the under-regulated and over-leveraged state that they were in before the crisis, then that is the last thing we need the world’s banks to return to. Thankfully, however, that does... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slump China’s commodity import volumes plummeted in October. While a shift in the timing of the MidAutumn Festival explains much of the decline, we think that there are now clear signs that domestic demand... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine central bank has more work to do The decision by Argentina’s central bank to follow up last month’s surprise interest rate hike with another increase last night reinforces the view that policymakers are getting tough on inflation. We... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to hit the buffers soon The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities set another record high on Tuesday, and is some way above its pre-global financial crisis peak. Although the MSCI Brazil Index – the fifth-largest... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
