Latin America Economics Update Venezuela could be in default by end of the week As markets digest conflicting statements by Venezuelan policymakers about their plans for debt servicing, one point to emphasise is that both PDVSA and the government could fall into default by the... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do ECB bond re-investments mean for yields? Data released by the ECB today imply that a significant volume of its German Bunds will mature next year, which the Bank will re-invest in German assets. But we don’t think that re-investments will... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will Bunds benefit most from the ECB’s reinvestment policy? 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Few signs of recovery prior to the rate hike There were few signs of a renewal in either house price growth or transactions ahead of this month’s rate hike. That said, with the economic backdrop improving, a gentle revival in housing market... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of the Saudi anti-corruption drive The arrests of prominent officials and businessmen in Saudi Arabia over the weekend has been welcomed in some quarters as a step towards tackling corruption in the Kingdom and is another sign that... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) The final estimate of October’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy made a strong start to Q4. But there are still only tentative signs that inflationary pressures are building. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Oct.) & Swedish Production Index. (Sep.) October’s weak Swiss inflation data support our view that SNB interest rate hikes are a very distant prospect. Elsewhere, Swedish production data suggest that quarterly GDP growth slowed in Q3. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Too soon to get excited about nickel The medium-term outlook for nickel demand has improved given that electric vehicles are likely to have a high nickel content. But, for now, the market is more than comfortably supplied. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy re-gains some momentum The latest evidence suggests that the economy has picked up some pace in the second half of the year. For a start, quarterly GDP growth edged up from Q2’s 0.3% rate, to 0.4% in Q3. And October’s... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Concessions needed by December David Davis’ appearance in front of the House of Lords’ Select Committee on the European Union provided some clues as to what will be required for the European Council to declare “sufficient progress”... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to rise further We expect CPI inflation to have rebounded in October driven by a rise in food price inflation. The core rate, which hit a six-year high in September, will likely have edged up too. Looking ahead, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Markets focus on the positives In a news-filled week, the prices of most industrial commodities and oil performed strongly. President Trump nominated Jerome Powell to be the next Fed Chair, but there are some concerns about whether... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Risky assets likely to withstand tighter-than-expected Fed policy 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC will become less dovish in time While the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to increase Bank Rate for the first time in a decade was largely priced into financial markets ahead of the November meeting, the Committee struck... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic outlook deteriorates The incoming monthly data suggest that economic growth faltered in the third quarter. The news isn’t all bad, but growth prospects for the fourth quarter are somewhat weaker than the third. And... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the poor drowning in debt as the rich get richer? The contrarian wisdom is that even if the aggregate debt-to-income ratio has fallen sharply in recent years, it masks financial stresses for those on low incomes, since most of the gains in income... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
