US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) A rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in applications for refinance in October, and low inventory levels are continuing to hit demand for purchase applications. As a result, total mortgage... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The return to growth of Brazilian industrial production in September was due entirely to a rebound in intermediate goods production, which was payback for a collapse in August. Even so, it looks like... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI in October suggests that the sector maintained its momentum at the start of Q4, and may help to reassure the MPC ahead of its decision on Thursday. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Capacity cuts starting to be felt in China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in October but they both paint a subdued picture of China’s activity. Somewhat ironically, lower commodity output is a key factor... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s election result reduces chance of fiscal boost At least four parties will be required to form a majority government following Iceland’s election, so coalition negotiations are set to take a number of months. As the left-wing parties performed... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) House prices are growing at low single-digit rates. With house prices already high, a rate hike imminent and banks looking increasingly cautious, we think price growth will stay around 2% in 2018. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Raising our Korea growth and interest rate forecasts China and South Korea’s decision to “reset” relations should provide a significant boost to Korea’s economy by bringing an end to China’s boycott of Korean goods as well as the clampdown on Chinese... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recovered a bit in October, but remained very low. Given that it has overstated the weakness of the economy in recent quarters, we wouldn’t read much into today’s... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI for Turkey – which fell to a six-month low – supports our view that following an impressive Q3, growth will slow in Q4. Elsewhere in the region, the Czech PMI painted a... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs are consistent with strong growth in industrial output. But only in Sweden do we expect this to put sustained upward pressure on inflation. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas set to burn brighter in 2018 The stability in US natural gas prices since early this year has led many market commentators to assume that prices will be stuck at current levels for the foreseeable future. This Energy Watch will... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bank recapitalisation a rare success in faltering reforms The bank recapitalisation package unveiled last week and the rise in India’s ranking in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey announced today have bolstered Mr Modi’s reform credentials. But... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The marginal dip in the seasonally-adjusted homeownership rate in the third quarter is another indication of the impact of low inventory on the housing market. Indeed, the homeowner vacancy remains... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy to remain in good shape The world economy looks to have maintained momentum in Q3. We expect another strong quarter to round off the year, and then for global growth to slow only modestly throughout 2018. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a near 17-year high in October suggests that, following the slightly softer 2.4% annualised gain in real consumption in the third quarter... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
