UK Economics Update Tight timetable in focus Comments by the Prime Minister Theresa May and Brexit Secretary David Davis this week have put into focus the tight timeframe in which the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU must be negotiated, and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Global QE” to slow only gradually Taking account of the ECB’s decision yesterday and of recent changes to our forecasts for Japan, we still think that the scale of central bank asset purchases under QE programmes in advanced economies... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM assets should cope well with scaling back of QE Emerging market (EM) assets have prospered this year despite the Fed continuing to raise rates. We think that they will also cope well as unconventional policy from several major central banks becomes... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home ownership rate could tumble The unprecedented upswing in the national home ownership rate, fuelled in large part by a credit boom, appears to have peaked and is now going into reverse, even though the aging population should be... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation nudges down again Aggregate EM inflation ticked down between August and September on the back of a fall in food inflation in East Asia. This appears to have been due to a shift in the timing of holidays in the region... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to raise rates faster in 2018, no matter who’s Chair Regardless of who is nominated to be the next Fed Chair, we expect a rebound in core inflation will prompt the Fed to raise interest rates four times in 2018. The components that have dragged core CPI... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Spain and Catalonia? The central Government in Madrid will now attempt to take direct administrative control of Catalonia following the region’s declaration of independence. We suspect that Madrid will achieve its aim of... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The 3.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP, which was almost unchanged from the 3.1% increase in the second, will be welcomed by the White House and demonstrates that the hurricanes ended up having... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Scope for pick-up in growth as inflation falls It’s fair to say that there was a certain amount of relief following this week’s GDP figures, which showed that the economy re-gained a bit of pace in Q3. But this hasn’t alleviated concerns that a... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Policy normalisation underway The Bank of England is set to hike its policy rate for the first time in a decade at its meeting next week, and the US Fed is on course to raise rates again in December, while continuing to unwind QE... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial total returns approach 20% The slight uptick in economic activity, as well as the healthy signs from the monthly property data, bode well for the property segment. What’s more, given that any monetary policy tightening is... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hints at larger easing cycle The Russian central bank statement, which accompanied today’s decision to cut the policy rate by 25bp, suggests that policymakers have become increasingly confident that inflation will remain low and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Boycotted election threatens lasting crisis The results of yesterday’s re-run presidential election in Kenya are not in doubt. But signs suggest the country’s political crisis – which has already weighed on the economy and local markets – will... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
