Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Sep.) The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained subdued in September. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the new tax system but the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlooks for Riksbank & Norges Bank policy While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept policy unchanged today, the outlooks for monetary policy in the two countries are very different. We think that policy in Sweden will be tightened... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s budget won’t be a giveaway bonanza While Malaysia has made good progress in bringing down its budget deficit, there remains limited room for a pre-election giveaway in the 2018 budget, which is due to be announced on 27th October... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Recovery in frontier economies continues The raft of GDP data released over the past month or so showed that the recovery in frontier markets strengthened in Q2. According to our GDP-weighted measure of growth, frontier economies expanded by... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A rebound in production and a slight rise in net imports led to an increase in crude stocks last week. On the other hand, stocks of gasoline and distillates fell as demand picked up and net imports... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales surged by 19% m/m in September to close to a 10-year high. However, this follows two months of subdued data, meaning that sales across Q3 were broadly unchanged from Q2. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada on hold for rest of this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.00% and its less hawkish policy statement indicate it will take a cautious approach, supporting our view that there will be no further rate... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch FOMC meeting could clash with Chair announcement The Fed’s policy meeting next week could provide some insight into whether the majority of officials still support a December interest rate hike. But it will otherwise be overshadowed by the imminent... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Deficit a symptom of broader malaise Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy speech confirmed that South Africa’s fiscal position has deteriorated since February. But the deficit – which is not as worrying as some seem to think – is the result... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn deepens in Q3, but close to a bottom Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted at a steeper pace in Q3 than in Q2. However, the worst may soon be over. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 2.2% m/m rise in durable goods orders in September confirms that business equipment investment posted another big gain in the third quarter, while the survey evidence suggests that things could... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage approvals have held broadly steady for the last two months. And with a November rate rise looking increasingly likely and banks having shown signs of pulling back on riskier lending, mortgage... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q3) The latest GDP figures revealed that the economy re-gained a bit of momentum in the third quarter and have probably sealed the deal on an interest rate hike next week. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in coal imports likely to be temporary The rebound in China and India’s coal imports is likely to be short-lived as higher domestic production and slowing consumption growth reduce the need for imports. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina raises rates, leaves door open to further hikes The decision by Argentina’s central bank to hike its policy interest rate, when most analysts had been expecting the next move to be a cut, is an encouraging sign that policymakers are serious about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
