Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets confident in November rate hike More than ten years on from the last increase in Bank Rate, investors expect a move from 0.25% to 0.50% at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting on the 2nd November. Indeed, the data have been... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy losing steam? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth in China slowed last month to the weakest pace in a year. Looking ahead, with property sales cooling and officials continuing their efforts to rein... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) Despite declining in October, the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economic recovery continued at a healthy pace at the start of Q4. But growth is being driven mainly by the core economies... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: worst of the blockade impact appears to be over Recently-released GDP data confirmed that the blockade on Qatar dealt a blow to its economy in June, but more timely data suggest that the worst has now passed. That said, any recovery is likely to be... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Aug.) The bounce back in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in August is encouraging, but the weak start to the third quarter means GDP growth may still be slowing. We expect GDP growth to rebound to... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are investors right to be taking events in Catalonia in their stride? 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.3% y/y increase in global steel production in January-September, with output rising in all the major producers except Japan. That said, global output was... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Over to you, President Macri The strong showing by President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in yesterday’s legislative elections is likely to give a boost to local financial markets when they open later today. However, attention... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct.) October’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey revealed a softening in order books and output expectations. Nonetheless, the survey still suggests that the recent improvement in the performance of the... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth peaking Growth in Emerging Europe probably picked up further in Q3, but we think that this will mark the peak in the economic cycle and expect aggregate regional growth to weaken a little next year... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep. & Q3) China’s September activity and investment data and Q3 GDP suggest that the economy is holding up well. However, both point to weakness in the construction sector, which will weigh on demand for metals... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction slowdown points to weakness ahead The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows a slowdown in industry and construction that was offset by stronger activity in the financial and information technology sectors... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A last-minute comeback for commodities Commodity prices initially wavered this week as the dollar strengthened. However, sentiment turned on Friday so that oil and most of the industrial metals ended up on the week. Concerns about oil... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth slowing Despite net external trade being a drag, the economy managed to grow by close to 2.0% q/q annualised in the third quarter, partly thanks to a big rebound in non-residential buildings investment... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
