Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada will probably err on the side of caution at its policy meeting next week by deciding to keep interest rates at 1.00%. Although the Bank still seems confident in the economy, NAFTA... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities defy stronger dollar Despite a stronger US dollar, the S&P GSCI commodity index trended higher. With the exception of agriculture, all the other sub-indices recorded gains. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy rebounding from hurricane disruption Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will repatriated foreign earnings flow into US equities? If the Republican’s proposed tax reforms are enacted, a large proportion of overseas income held by US multinational enterprises (MNEs) could be returned to the US. We anticipate that a sizeable share... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Monetary policy outlook suggests that the rally in Gilts won’t last 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Rate rises will extend the soft patch The current softness in housing market activity is a sign that house prices have reached the limit of what current incomes and credit conditions can sustain. Given our forecasts for the economy and... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) Housing starts continued their disappointing run in September, contracting for the third month in a row to leave them at their lowest level for a year. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma look to have had some... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The increase in manufacturing sales volumes in August, partly due to a one-off rebound in auto production, was stronger than expected and a positive sign for industrial production in that month. The... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole probably came in at around 2.0% y/y, which would be a little weaker than in Q2 (2.5% y/y). But the economy remains in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumers surviving the squeeze Consumers appear to be riding out the real pay squeeze well, supporting our view that spending growth will remain subdued, rather than collapse. And it shouldn’t be too long before the inflationary... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September, released today, suggests that the economy grew by around 4.8% y/y in Q3, which would be the best performance in six years. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth remained robust in Q3 New activity data suggest that South Africa’s long-suffering economy experienced comparatively robust growth in mid-Q3. Today’s figures support our markedly above-consensus growth forecasts. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) Employment growth came off the boil a little in August. But with surveys of hiring suggesting that this will be a temporary development while wage growth more-or-less maintained its recent pace, we... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Aug.) Driven primarily by part-time positions, job creation during the three months to August was half the level seen in July. Yet, the latest data is consistent with broadly stable rates of rental growth. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: investment key to sustaining manufacturing boom Egypt’s manufacturing sector has been one of the main beneficiaries from a weaker pound but the recent rapid pace of growth will be difficult to sustain in the absence of a significant pick up in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Tougher mortgage regulation to hit housing hard The final decision to forge ahead with proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters worse for the already faltering housing market. This will have a far greater impact on house... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
