US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m rise in headline consumer prices in September was driven by a spike in gasoline prices due to Hurricane Harvey, while there was a more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices. But the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are new homes shrinking? The average floor area of new homes has been shrinking over the past 18-months. Smaller lot sizes may be partly responsible. But we suspect the key driver is increased construction and land costs... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans steal the show The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s latest set of estimates painted a more mixed picture this month. While the report was perceived as bearish for wheat and cotton, soybeans and corn rallied on... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austrian populists to frustrate EU integration plans The Austrian general election taking place this Sunday is likely to result in a far-right, populist party entering government. While this probably won’t have significant domestic economic... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stamp duty hike likely to call time on Dublin property With investors now forced to fund an additional 4% in transaction costs, Ireland’s decision to increase stamp duty on commercial property will add to the slowdown in the market. Furthermore, with... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A bumper month for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes surged in September. However, this could reflect a final push at the local level to boost activity ahead of the Party Congress this month. As such, import volumes... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Expanding property curbs to weigh further on sales A slump in home sales in China’s major cities during the National Day holiday has grabbed many headlines this week. But this weakness isn’t a new development. Home sales in big cities have been... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Risk of violent crisis escalating Kenya’s post-election legal drama is still rapidly developing. But the latest developments all suggest that the country’s chance of avoiding a violent (and economically painful) crisis is dwindling. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank shrugs off inflation dip Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% last night, and while there could be scope to ease policy a little further in the next 3-6 months, as things stand we expect rates... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s reduction in US crude stocks was mainly owing to lower production and a recovery in refinery inputs. Stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few weeks as demand gains momentum. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Agriculturals: more of the same in 2018? For the most part, 2017 will be a year to forget for agricultural commodities as abundant supply weighed on prices. In this Commodities Watch, we will take stock of the latest developments in... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to shrug off calls for deeper oil output cuts Oil policy in the Gulf has been thrust back into the spotlight after the Saudi government disclosed details of Aramco’s export allocations for November. But there is less to this than meets the eye... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Zurich office rents on the cusp of a revival? Economic and survey data suggest that prime office rents in Zurich may have finally found a floor. But with new developments and refurbishments equivalent to around 5% of current stock due to complete... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
