Africa Economic Outlook A multispeed recovery We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in the region’s three biggest economies – Nigeria, South... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) Today’s BRC survey suggested that the resilience of retail spending continued in September despite above-target inflation eating further into consumers’ purchasing power. 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Aug.) The unexpected softness of French industrial production in August suggests that industry weighed on France’s GDP growth in the third quarter and contrasted with the robust Italian data. Meanwhile... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) While Norwegian inflation picked up in September, domestic price pressures remain subdued and inflation is unlikely to meet the Norges Bank’s target any time soon. We therefore think that interest... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation edged down further in September and we expect it to fall sharply in the coming months, prompting the central bank to start cutting interest rates. 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will a move towards full expensing boost investment? The shift to full expensing of firms’ capital investments included in Republicans’ tax plans would provide a temporary boost to the economy by encouraging businesses to bring forward investment... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is a boost from tax reform already discounted in the S&P 500? 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market? The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a rapid downwards trend and we expect the headline rate to fall back into the central bank’s target range by the middle of next... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Does the rally in alumina prices have legs? The jump in alumina prices is probably premised largely on the prospect of winter capacity closures in China. But given that aluminium production could also fall, the market may not be as tight as it... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The small rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month is consistent with muted capital outflows but hints at active intervention by the People’s Bank to inject two-way volatility into the... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s JGB purchases to slow further The Bank of Japan’s purchases of JGBs have now fallen to around ¥60 trillion per annum and they are likely to be cut further to ¥40 trillion over the next couple of years. However, this shouldn’t have... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.7% y/y in September supports our view that the next hike in the policy interest rate – taking it from 0.25% to 0.50% – will come at the CNB Board... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong jobs growth isn’t a silver bullet for households The sizeable pick-up in employment growth in recent months presents an upside risk to our forecast that consumption growth will slow notably this year. But in light of the other headwinds restraining... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A busy week ahead … It was a relatively quiet week on the news front, at least until the US labour data on Friday. The 33,000 drop in non-farm payrolls came as a surprise, even though markets had expected hurricane... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What are auto sales telling us about metals demand? Vehicles are a growing source of demand for metals, including platinum group metals (PGMs), zinc, aluminium, steel, nickel and copper. In this Metals Watch we look at the latest trends in global auto... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
