Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Retail weakness a worry, but not a disaster The recent slump in retail sales in Australia suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth that we have been warning about is underway. But it’s not a disaster for the economy as an associated... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals for Q3 The latest indicators have given mixed signals about the euro-zone economy in Q3. Somewhat ironically, the “hard” data available so far have been rather soft. Industrial production rose by just 0.1%... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch for in upcoming elections Latin America’s economic recovery is strengthening but a series of elections over the coming months has added some uncertainty to the outlook. The immediate focus will be on upcoming votes in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market remains in the doldrums With new buyer enquiries stalling and last month’s jump in mortgage approvals proving to be a one-off, the housing market remains in the doldrums. On the one hand, it is somewhat reassuring that... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update No value left in Budapest prime high streets Prime retail property in Budapest was undervalued as little as a year ago. However, with yields having fallen substantially in the last 12 months, there is no value left and we see little upside to... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The drop in Russian inflation to a fresh low of 3.0% y/y in September means that another cut in interest rates is all but guaranteed at this month’s CBR Board meeting. The fact that core inflation... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing of the trade deficit to $42.4bn in August, from $43.6bn, provides further evidence that net trade was on course to make a small positive contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) The continued weakness in export volumes and softness in imports indicate that the pace of economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter. As things stand, we think the balance of risks around... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy struggling to pick up pace The latest evidence suggests that the economy has maintained a fairly modest pace in Q3. Indeed, the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI is consistent, on the basis of past form, with quarterly GDP growth of 0... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Hold on to your hard hats! The prices of most metals fell in September as a rising US dollar and upward revisions to expectations of US interest rate hikes weighed on investor sentiment. Signs of somewhat softer economic... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will the SNB respond to ECB tapering? The Swiss National Bank will surely welcome the likely announcement later this month by the European Central Bank that it will wind up its asset purchase programme next year. This will probably help... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Sep.) & Swedish Industrial Prod. (Aug.) The rise in Swiss headline inflation in September will be welcomed by the Swiss National Bank, but subdued price pressures mean we expect the SNB to keep rates on hold until 2020. Elsewhere, Swedish... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Aug.) The net result of the retail sales and international trade data for August isn’t a disaster for the overall economy. But the weakness in retail sales supports our long-held view that a slowdown in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
