Global Markets Focus Will Corporate America shore up the Treasury market? Corporate America has been masquerading as a major “foreign” investor in US government bonds in recent years. This Focus considers whether its healthy appetite will continue and anchor Treasury yields... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in exports to the highest level on record last week helped to draw down crude stocks. We expect exports to remain high while the Brent-WTI spread is wide which should help to reduce stocks... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC stays dovish, but rate hikes on the cards in 2018 Poland’s MPC left interest rates unchanged today and the press statement and conference that followed struck a dovish tone. While headline inflation is likely to edge down in the final months of this... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Motoring along There is no sign that the synchronised upturn in the world economy is running out of steam. The two hurricanes which hit the US in the past couple of months should have only a short-lived impact on... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep.) The surge in the ISM non-manufacturing index is a clear sign that the economy is recovering quickly from any hurricane-related disruption and that the underlying pace of GDP growth remains strong. A... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Record low inventory constrains sales and lifts prices Housing starts have stalled over the past year, there has been no increase in the number of homes listed and inventory levels have fallen to record lows. That is constraining housing market activity... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are investors right to be very bearish on Treasuries this time? 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Have oil and coal prices peaked? The rallies in the prices of coal and oil look like they may have run out of steam in the last week. The prices of both had been boosted by stronger demand and supply disruptions. However, global... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Following two months of declines, mortgage applications for home purchase rose by a marginal 2.0% m/m in September. But that rise reflected buyers bringing applications forward at the start of the... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Prime-age participation has further to rise The share of people aged 25 to 54 who are in the labour force is likely to rise further over the coming years, as labour market conditions continue to tighten and disability rates drop back... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland at the end of its loosening cycle Despite the increased likelihood of looser fiscal policy next year following the collapse of the government last month, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) today opted to cut interest rates. We suspect... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, renewed loosening unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations by keeping its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today. It also acknowledged the growing upside risks to the inflation outlook. As such... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations of EM equities don’t look stretched Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has rallied by more than 20% this year, this gain has primarily been driven by expectations of faster earnings growth. As a result, its valuation is no... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Sep.) The rise in September’s services sector PMI will help to assuage fears that the economy is losing momentum, but it suggests that growth struggled to pick up pace in Q3. 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending growth slowed in Q3. But September’s Composite PMI implies that overall GDP growth remained fairly strong. 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
