Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC begins aggressive tightening cycle The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy – even though the policy rate was left unchanged. Policymakers struck a fairly... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The August CoreLogic house price index shows that house prices are continuing to come under upward pressure. A robust 0.8% m/m gain pushed the annual rate to a three-year high. Given how tight market... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in August more than offset July’s 0.7% m/m gain, but this was due in large part to a decline in notoriously-volatile food... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep.) The headline construction PMI fell back into contractionary territory, despite a relatively muted fall in the commercial sector. Even so, September’s commercial construction data suggests that rental... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The jump in Turkish inflation, to 11.2% y/y last month, from 10.7% y/y in August, means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of this year are looking less likely. We still think... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s PMI data suggest that non-oil sectors in the Gulf slowed a touch in September, although the surveys remained above their mid-year lows. Meanwhile, Egypt’s PMI suggests that its recovery... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA becoming more confident in the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia may have left interest rates at 1.5% for the 14th month today, but its growing confidence in the outlook for activity and inflation may mean it will be prepared to signal... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Rally in oil starting to burn out Oil prices surged in September, which in turn boosted the prices of agriculturals. In contrast, concerns about demand and dollar appreciation weighed on metals prices. Looking ahead, the price of oil... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still in decent shape The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest that conditions in emerging market manufacturing eased a touch at the end of Q3, but remain robust compared with the past few years. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The latest PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that global manufacturing growth remained strong in September, adding to evidence that the world economy ended the third quarter on a strong note. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Sep.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 13-year high of 60.8 in September, from 58.8, is the latest illustration of the benefit to the manufacturing sector from the weaker dollar and strong... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
