Global Markets Update Will earnings growth continue to buoy global equities? This year’s rally in global equities has been driven primarily by an increase in investors’ expectations for corporate earnings. In general, we expect earnings to continue to support equities in 2018. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could a soft housing market slow Oslo retail rents? The improving economic environment in Norway, coupled with strong urban population growth, as well as low inflation and interest rates, will support real retail rental growth in Oslo high streets in... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in August adds to the evidence that the region’s economy performed well in Q3. And the outlook for exports is bright. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Credit growth slowed slightly in the second quarter but remains very strong by past standards. However, this has yet to result in a marked increase in private sector indebtedness. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflation pressures weak apart from in Sweden The inflation data for September suggest that underlying price pressures remained subdued in most of the Nordic and Swiss countries, apart from Sweden. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deal, no deal or no Brexit? The fifth round of Brexit negotiations passed without much progress being made towards a withdrawal agreement, while the Government appears to have stepped up its plans somewhat for coping with a “no... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China The more industrial commodities have had a good week, which was vindicated to some extent on Friday by data showing a surge in China’s commodity imports in September. Meanwhile, the minutes from the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How do our forecasts differ from the consensus and the IMF? For most countries, our forecasts are a little bit below those of both the consensus and the IMF. However, there are three economies, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Pakistan where we think other... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Employment growth will continue to trend lower Even putting aside the hurricane-related fall in payroll employment in September specifically, trend employment growth has been gradually slowing for more than two years now. The surge in job openings... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Life without NAFTA wouldn't be catastrophic The most important data releases next week are the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and consumer prices. Following its decision to start raising interest rates this year, the Bank will be... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth set to slow in Q4 EM exports look to have grown strongly in Q3, helped by a rise in commodity prices. However, this is unlikely to herald a return to the rapid rates of export growth seen at the beginning of 2017... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in September provides further evidence that the economy is bouncing back from the disruption caused by the hurricanes. Real consumption growth still looks to have slowed in... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are Treasury investors complacent about the inflation outlook? 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will productivity growth ever recover? The strong performance of the labour market since the financial crisis has left only limited scope for further increases in employment to continue to support GDP growth. As such, productivity growth... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
