UK Housing Market Update Has the shortage of homes for sale worsened? Changes in the number of surveyors, seller behaviour and the rise of online agents mean that the fall in homes for sale may be overstated. Our analysis suggests that while the number of homes for sale... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How worried should we be about corporate scandals? Recent scandals underline that Japan’s corporate governance practices are still poor. Investors often pay a heavy price as shown by the bankruptcy of Takata and the slump in Kobe Steel’s stock prices... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What is the true rate of inflation? Although much attention will fall on the release of the third-quarter Australian inflation figures next week, the reweighting of the CPI basket in the fourth-quarter will be more significant as it... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up as pay squeeze reaches its worst There can be no question that consumer spending growth has suffered as nominal pay growth has lagged behind the ongoing currency-driven bout of higher inflation. But some of the slowdown in consumer... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM currencies withstand the Fed? After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates further next year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% probably represents a pause in the central bank’s easing cycle, rather than a halt. We continue to think that with... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Set to unveil roadmap for gentle, flexible taper The ECB has now laid some very firm groundwork to announce after its meeting on 26th October that it will taper its asset purchases from January. Unlike most forecasters, we expect the Bank to set out... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank on hold ahead of ECB The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its policy stance until it sees firmer signals of the outlook for policy in the euro-zone. So despite above-target inflation in Sweden, we do not expect the Riksbank... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Housing market risks diminishing The recent slowdown in the housing market suggests that there is scope for monetary policy to be looser over the coming years than the Norges Bank currently anticipates. That said, we don’t expect any... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Although September’s retail sales figures were far weaker than expected, growth still maintained a fairly reasonable pace over Q3 as a whole. As a result, we doubt that today’s figures will dissuade... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The surprising jump in Turkish inflation in the past few months appears to be mainly due to a combination of a rise in dairy and egg inflation, the lingering impact of previous falls in the lira as... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in net imports and lower production contributed to a fall in crude inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks moved higher as demand for petroleum products slumped. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How far might the Mexican peso fall if Nafta collapses? We think the Mexican peso could initially fall to as far as 23/$ in the event that Nafta collapses. What happens to the currency beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon several factors, most... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
