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How far might the Mexican peso fall if Nafta collapses?

We think the Mexican peso could initially fall to as far as 23/$ in the event that Nafta collapses. What happens to the currency beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon several factors, most notably whether Trump pulls out of the WTO too. But assuming he doesn’t, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the peso rebound, before settling at around 20.0/$ (from 18.8/$ now).

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