Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil hits $60pb but Gulf markets continue to struggle Oil prices broke through $60pb this month, up by a third since the middle of the year, but this has failed to provide a fillip to financial markets in the Gulf. In contrast, markets in Egypt have... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The 0.2% q/q fall in Mexican GDP in Q3 was weaker than expected but the data are provisional and are perhaps more likely than usual to be revised given the disruption caused by the twin earthquakes... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth exceeded 6% for the first time in over three years in August, even as mortgage applications for home purchase have edged down. Prices are being... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the slump in the saving rate a danger? The decline in the household saving rate, to a near-decade low of 3.1% in September, is largely explained by the accompanying surge in household net wealth to a record high. Capital gains mean that... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Zinc to lose its zing in 2018 Since the start of 2016, zinc has doubled in price. A combination of mine closures (owing to depletion), production cuts and solid demand have been the key drivers of the rally. But speculative... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) After slowing to a complete standstill in July, real monthly GDP contracted by 0.1% m/m in August, a weaker showing than most expected and further evidence of a potentially sharp slowdown in economic... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt markets Political shocks hit markets in South Africa and Kenya in recent weeks. Markets elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa also performed pretty poorly over the course of October, though they remain up on the... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is London facing a Brexodus? Reports that the Bank of England is assuming 75,000 office-based would shift away from London following Brexit paints a gloomy picture for office markets. However, not only is London less dependent on... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities bounce back Equity markets in Asia rebounded strongly in October, with bourses in Korea, India, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia all reaching new record highs. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) The euro-zone economy posted a stronger-than-expected 0.6% quarterly expansion in Q3, but October’s CPI data will have reinforced the ECB’s judgement that its inflation goal is not yet in sight. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence Despite their concerns about the economic outlook, consumers are still upbeat about their own financial position. As a result, we still think that household spending growth should be able to maintain... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data? The argument made recently that Turkey’s GDP data are being manipulated by the authorities and that the recent rapid growth rates aren’t plausible doesn’t seem to square with other available evidence... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3), CPI (Oct.) & Cons. Spending (Sep.) The French economic recovery continued at a healthy pace in Q3, marking a good start to Emmanuel Macron’s presidential term. Although inflation edged up in October, it remains fairly subdued, which... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan rose in Q3 to the fastest pace in more than two years as a jump in exports outweighed a slowdown in the domestic economy. Looking ahead, with global demand set to remain healthy... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: A look at the balance sheet Kenya’s ongoing political crisis is drawing attention to its fragile balance sheet. Our core view is that policymakers should be able to manage the situation. Even if the currency were to weaken... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rise in government bond yields unlikely to last China’s government bond yields have risen over the past week as state funds have stopped propping up the country’s bond prices after the Party Congress. But with the PBOC likely to keep short-term... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
