Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The solid 35,300 increase in employment in October, driven by further gains in full-time work, is an encouraging sign for income and spending in the fourth quarter. Although the unemployment rate... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Still too soon to sound the alarm Although the valuations of most risky assets have risen further above their long-run averages during the past quarter, we still don’t expect them to come crashing down any time soon. As we argued in... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The smaller than expected 261,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in October, which was below the 310,000 consensus forecast, isn’t as disappointing as it looks when the cumulative 90,000 upward... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Huge challenges to Venezuela’s debt restructuring The announcement by President Maduro that Venezuela’s government plans to restructure its external debt essentially amounts to admitting that it will default in the coming weeks. While the exact... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Which assets will the ECB buy in 2018? The ECB’s decision last week to extend its bond-buying well into 2018 means that it will probably need to change the composition of its purchases. After all, it has already had to reduce its purchases... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price overvalued according to most indicators Elevated geopolitical risks and dovish market expectations for Fed tightening have supported the price of gold this year. While we have revised up our end-2017 and end-2018 forecasts, we still expect... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The causes of the financial crisis The seeds of the financial crisis were sown in the interaction of four key factors, linked by one critical underlying problem. This was an intellectual failure across financial institutions... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Oct.) The sharp rise in October’s Markit/CIPS measure of services activity suggests that Q4 got off to a solid start and perhaps provides some early justification for the MPC’s rate hike. 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity growth back from the dead The sharp rebound in productivity this year, after falling outright in 2016, is positive news for the economy and suggests that real wages will pick up more rapidly soon. But with employment growth... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Trump’s Asia trip Donald Trump’s priority during his upcoming trip to Asia is likely to be drumming up support for his hard-line stance in dealing with North Korea. But while this means he is likely to go soft on his... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil market counting on extension to OPEC output cuts After looking like they may have run out of steam in September, the rallies in coal and oil prices returned with a vengeance last month. Indeed, speculation about supply restrictions – by OPEC for the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s BNDES reform slips under the radar The planned changes to the way that Brazil’s state development bank, BNDES, will set interest rates on its loans have passed under the radar but the macroeconomic effects could be significant. We... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The latest batch of manufacturing surveys suggests that advanced economies continued to do very well in October. As a result, the global manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since early 2011... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy is an exception and has come under fire for a lack of fiscal... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to recover, as BoE proves not so dovish after all 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
