Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations hold steady this quarter Falls in many government bond yields and in equity dividend yields this quarter meant that despite small falls in property yields, overall valuation scores improved slightly this quarter. Nevertheless... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How tight are mortgage lending standards? Smaller down payments and rising debt-to-income ratios might be an indication that mortgage lending standards are once again being relaxed to dangerous levels. But the Ability to Repay rule is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Despite the subdued 0.2% m/m gain in headline retail sales in October, which was still above the consensus forecast of no change, the underlying details suggest that real consumption growth has picked... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) A drop back in energy prices last month pushed headline down to 2.0% from 2.2%, but there are clear signs that underlying price pressures are on the rise again. Core inflation increased for the first... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit: so far, so good? So far, Brexit has not had the huge adverse effects on the UK which many anticipated, and it has not caused any political upsets in the rest of Europe. It looks like there will be no major changes in... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The decline in the national composite house price index in October led to a further slowdown in the annual rate of house price inflation to 10.0%, from 11.4%. The recent slump in home sales, increases... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Turn in the cycle The October data available so far suggest that China’s economy is starting to slow after growing at a rapid pace through most of this year. Real investment and property sales were both lower last... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How important is Zimbabwe’s economy? The military takeover in Zimbabwe last night has drawn attention to the escalating political crisis in the country. In this Update, we look at the economic angle and explain why the latest... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery continued in Q3 South African activity data for September were disappointing, but it looks like the economy expanded by a decent 2% q/q saar over Q3 as a whole. More timely figures for October suggest that the... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The 14,000 quarterly fall in employment was the first since October last year. But given the strength of the hiring surveys we suspect this will prove a blip rather than the start of a sustained... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in September adds to the evidence that net exports boosted GDP in Q3. And despite the appreciation of the euro this year, the outlook for exports is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic monetary policy to be unchanged until 2019 Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appears to have reached the end of its loosening cycle. We expect the Bank to keep rates on hold until... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Sep.) Job creation contracted for the first time since last October. However, the big picture is that the labour market data is still pointing to low, but positive rates of rental value growth next year. 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Last month’s Nigerian inflation reading of 15.9% y/y means that, although the central bank has signalled that it intends to cut interest rates, this is unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. We... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) Wage growth for the majority of workers may have slowed further in the third quarter as the entire rise from 1.9% in the second quarter to 2.0% was probably due to the larger-than-usual increase in... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro? We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
