Global Trade Monitor World trade on track for a strong Q4 The latest CPB data suggest that world trade volumes held on to recent gains in September. Other indicators have been even more upbeat, and the signs are that trade is maintaining momentum in Q4. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Nov.) Preliminary surveys, published by Markit yesterday and today, point to a further pick-up in economic growth in the world’s largest advanced economies in November. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update N. Ireland border issue unresolved as time runs short Press reports suggest that the UK will increase its financial offer in a bid to move talks on to phase two at the December EU Council meeting. But the Irish border issue remains unresolved with just... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Industrials on the march Commodity prices drifted a bit towards the end of the week as the US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Otherwise, the prices of most of the industrial and energy commodities rose... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy The legalisation and regulation of marijuana next year will not significantly improve the economic growth outlook, although legitimising a previously black market industry will provide a modest one... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy? Given the persistently disappointing performance of productivity, it is entirely understandable that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) decided in this week’s Budget to adopt more pessimistic... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster profit growth won't spur investment The faster growth in corporate profits in the third quarter is an encouraging sign for economic growth, but the details were less impressive. In addition, with oil prices still relatively low despite... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softly, softly...the ECB is tweaking its forward guidance Our reading of the minutes of the ECB’s October policy meeting is that the Bank has begun to prepare the ground for an end to its asset purchases. Before long, the ECB seems set to stop promising to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts Despite being persistently surprised to the upside during the course of 2017, the IPF Consensus does not envisage that this year’s better-than-expected performance of the commercial property market... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: downgrade largely priced in Fears that bond yields could jump sharply and that the rand could sell off if Moody’s and S&P cut South Africa’s local currency debt to junk status later today look a bit overblown. Much of the bad... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Strong growth in CEE starts to raise eyebrows Recently-released figures showed that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picked up to a post-financial crisis high of 5.3% y/y in Q3. Growth strengthened in most countries in the region –... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Oct.) House purchase mortgage approvals fell back in October. But the data show that remortgaging surged, as existing borrowers rushed to lock in record low rates ahead of November’s rate rise. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Nov.) November’s rise in German business sentiment suggests that firms are unfazed by political uncertainty. Even if voters have to return to the polls, we expect the economy to do very well in the coming... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth rebounds, but inflation remains weak With Q3 GDP figures now published for most of the major economies in Emerging Asia, the region looks to have grown by 4.6% y/y in the third quarter – a full 1.5%-points faster than just 18 months ago... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
