Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) In Q3, Italy’s economy grew more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole for the ninth straight quarter. Timelier activity surveys suggest that growth will pick up a little in the run-up to next year’s... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP growth has remained strong in Central Europe in Q4, probably at around 4.5-5.0% y/y. The pick-up in Russia’s PMI was also encouraging in light of the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC extends output cuts by another nine months As expected, OPEC announced yesterday that it, together with Russia and some other non-OPEC producers, would be extending the output cuts by nine months until the end of 2018, with the possibility of... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Crackdown on online lending spooks markets Chinese equities have fallen back from recent highs after regulators spooked investors by tightening restrictions on online lending. But we don’t think a slump is likely. Meanwhile, corporate bond... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty about to lift? Expectations that the growth of the UK economy will slow further in 2018 appear to assume that Brexitrelated uncertainty will have a more damaging impact next year. But there is a growing chance that... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region holds its breath The Middle East and North Africa has been gripped by political turmoil over the past few weeks. The most high-profile development was the launch of an anti-corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, led by... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What would the fallout be from another slump in IT shares? 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep pressure on Fed We forecast a 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The latter will concern those Fed officials worried that diminishing... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Today’s national accounts data show that GDP growth accelerated in Q3, arresting a slide of five consecutive quarters. Elements of today’s data are hard to square with evidence from other indicators... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London construction comes off the boil Consistent with slower pace of rental growth and the rise in vacancy rates seen over the last year, the latest Deloitte’s Crane Survey showed a 9% fall in office construction activity in central... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s rise in headline euro-zone consumer price inflation and the fall in the unemployment rate in October may offer some reassurance to the ECB as it prepares to reduce the pace of its asset... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) House price inflation in November was unchanged, at 2.5% y/y. And with buyer demand weakening and mortgage approvals having fallen for a third consecutive month, house price growth is set to hold at... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence November’s GfK/NOP survey suggested that consumers have become a bit more pessimistic in the runup to Christmas, perhaps reflecting the first rise in interest rates in a decade. But as the squeeze on... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
