UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market sees chilly end to 2017 The housing market remains in the doldrums, and there are few signs that this will change soon. Indeed, leading indicators such as the new buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales balances point to... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The 2.4% m/m increase in mortgage applications for home purchase in November more than reversed the previous month’s drop. But the bigger picture is that home purchase demand has made no sustained... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic interest rates to remain on hold At its last meeting in November, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept policy on hold. Nothing has happened since then to alter our view that interest rates will remain unchanged until 2019. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shifting up another gear? The world economy has continued to experience fairly rapid growth. Manufacturing output and global trade have picked up, and the latest business surveys and measures of consumer confidence have... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will fiscal and monetary policy interact? The soon-to-be-finalised fiscal stimulus could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy slightly more aggressively next year, although the potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policies... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will corporate tax hikes dent Korea’s competitiveness? The programme of tax hikes and spending increases passed today by South Korea’s parliament is unlikely to have much impact on the country’s growth prospects. The budget is forecast to be fiscally... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the ANC national conference Long simmering political tensions within the African National Congress (ANC) will come to the boil next week when the ruling party meets for its national conference. But while the summit has cast a... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US tax cuts bolster calls for China to follow suit As US tax reform nears the finishing line, some in China are warning that the cut to US corporate tax rates could undermine China’s competitiveness and spur capital outflows. We think these concerns... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening The RBI kept its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today, defying calls from prominent members of the government for further rate cuts. In fact, with core price pressures building, we think the debate may... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s rise in Swiss inflation reflected both higher energy prices and a weaker franc. But with inflation still very weak, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank will decide to alter its ultra... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The performance of the economy in 2018 will largely come down to whether stronger business investment can continue to compensate for weaker dwellings investment and consumption, as it did in the third... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2018 We’ve revised down our forecast for China’s growth next year on the back of the weakness in recent data. There will be little movement in the official GDP growth numbers but we now expect actual... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift The surprisingly dovish tone taken by Governor Glapinski in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting belies the hawkish shift in sentiment across the Council as a whole. In spite of the... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals starting to look vulnerable The prices of most metals fell in November, reflecting concerns about somewhat softer economic data out of China. The outlier was the ferrous sector, where prices surged on the prospect of Chinese... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform enters the final stretch With both the House and Senate having passed their respective versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it now seems reasonably certain that we will get a package of tax cuts in place by early next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy maintaining its momentum in Q4 The Office for National Statistics confirmed that GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3 and the economy appears to have maintained its recent momentum so far in the fourth quarter. Indeed, November’s Markit/CIPS... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
