Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will housing bubbles prompt early rate hikes? Macro-prudential policies to cool the housing markets in Switzerland and Norway will allow their central banks to keep monetary policy loose, boosting inflation from its current low rates. By contrast... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi politics emerges as key economic risk Saudi politics has been a staid affair for decades, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s launch of an anti-corruption crackdown and his ratcheting up of tensions with Iran herald a period of greater... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s dip in German ZEW investor sentiment leaves it still at a high level and suggests that investors do not see political uncertainty as a major threat to the economic outlook. 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Oct.) and MLAR statistics (Q3) House price growth cooled according to the official house price index. And a fall in the number of buyers with high LTI loans supports our view that house price growth will remain subdued. 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) While CPI inflation was higher than the consensus forecast and the MPC’s expectation in November, it has probably now peaked. As a result, there is little need for the MPC to raise interest rates... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) Swedish inflation was higher than the Riksbank forecast in November, supporting our view that next week the Riksbank will not announce an extension of its asset purchase programme into 2018. 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the EM world were essentially balanced last month. Over 2017 as a whole, outflows will be about US$55bn, just an eighth of the total recorded in... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q3) For anyone in doubt, the weakening in house prices in the third quarter all but confirms that Australia’s housing boom is over. And more up-to-date indicators suggest that prices fell further in the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Out of the woods? Five key questions about Greece The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Inflation: The next 20 years Inflation has been unusually stable over the past decade at a relatively low level, but there is no guarantee that the status quo will be maintained in the long term. A slide into deflation or a... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are confident households not spending more? Consumer confidence has surged to its highest level since 2000 in advanced economies but consumption growth has not picked up. We think this is largely due to weak real wage growth. As tight labour... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be concerned about German house prices? The recent strength of German house price inflation is a justifiable response to increased urbanisation and a shift towards home ownership there. Given that mortgage lending growth remains moderate... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) New lending jumped last month but this masks a further slowdown in underlying credit growth. Despite the official rhetoric on the need to deleverage, we think the drag on economic activity from this... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is there any value left in German real estate? Even with prime commercial property yields in Germany plumbing new lows, investment activity is still strong. But with tighter monetary policy on the horizon, property yields are at threat from rising... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
