Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI capped off a strong year and puts the economy on a very firm footing for the start of 2018. But with the survey’s price indices edging down in December, the ECB... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) With demand and agreed sales still falling, there is little hope of a revival in the housing market before the end of the year. But with the economic backdrop set to improve, a gentle recovery in... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) Another month of extraordinarily strong jobs growth in November leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market. That said, there is still plenty of spare capacity which will... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to confirm end of QE this month While there are some reasons to think that the Riksbank will extend its quantitative easing programme when it meets next week, we think that policymakers will let it expire. We also think that the... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What will 2018 bring for EM local currency bonds? Despite the prospect of more monetary tightening in the US than investors are anticipating next year, we think that local factors will have more of a bearing on monetary policy in emerging markets... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More of the same in the December WASDE There were no major surprises in the latest set of estimates published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Projected 2017/18 ending stocks for the grains and soybeans were raised further... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply again last week. However, surging US production could potentially push the global oil market back into a surplus next year. What’s more, stocks of petroleum products are... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation bottoms out The latest data confirm that inflation in Latin America has bottomed out. Having hit a seven-year low of 3.6% y/y in September, our measure of regional inflation edged up to 3.9% y/y in November. This... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will average mortgage length continue to rise? Slowing house price growth should reduce the upward pressure on average mortgage duration. Yet looking ahead, the share of borrowers taking out longer loans may nonetheless grow, thanks to the... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) Today’s report showed that OPEC’s production fell again last month. However, the group also increased its expectations of non-OPEC supply growth. We think that the cartel is still being too optimistic... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The third consecutive monthly decline in the composite house price index in November led to a further slowdown in the rate of annual house price inflation to 10.0%, from 11.4%. The recent slump in... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer prices increased by a robust 0.4% m/m in November, albeit mainly due to a 7.3% m/m surge in gasoline prices, with core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.1% m/m... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) While the 56,000 fall in employment in the three months to October was larger than the consensus expectation of a 40,000 drop, employment looks unlikely to continue to fall for much longer. Meanwhile... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4 Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
