Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE not yet overheating, but risks are building The sheer pace of GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe in Q3 has raised a few eyebrows. For now, there are few signs that economies in the region are overheating. But we are becoming... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Oct.) While the flurry of UK activity data was fairly disappointing, the industrial sector still looks on course to provide solid support to growth in Q4. 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports jump China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in November, after the October weakness. The data may have been boosted by holiday-related distortions but it also appears that policies to curtail... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Icelandic GDP (Q3) Very strong Icelandic growth in Q3 somewhat overstates the health of the economy, given that consumer spending was stagnant and exports slumped. That said, surveys bode well for the outlook. 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) The unexpected jump in French industrial production in October was fairly broad-based and shows that the sector made a very healthy start to Q4. Meanwhile, German trade data for the same month were... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the unemployment rate reached a floor? The jobless rate has been effectively flat since February despite continued strong growth in the economy. The economy is now close to full employment which suggests that wage growth will continue to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses step up while households go on strike The recent shift in the composition of GDP growth in Australia has important consequences for the outlook for next year. While businesses will support growth by more than in any year since 2012... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while longer before hiking again While the MPC is extremely unlikely to raise interest rates again at its meeting on 14th December, the key question is whether any of the nine committee members will vote for another hike so soon... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2018 Although the economy probably grew by 3% in 2017, the gains were overly-dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That was possible when interest rates were near record lows and home values... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Underlying inflationary pressures remain uneven Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are forecasts for US oil output too optimistic? The recent rise in prices makes a large jump in US oil production next year relatively certain. However, rising costs, fewer efficiency gains and maturing fields will start to weigh on growth towards... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would an AMLO presidency mean for Mexico? Mexico’s presidential election race is starting to take shape, with Finance Minister José Antonio Meade this month stepping down from his post in order to run on the ticket of the ruling PRI party... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt mean? Speculation that US sanctions could be expanded to include sovereign debt have caused a stir in the Russian bond market. It is still far from certain that this will happen. But were it to materialise... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to sit tight as ECB taper eases pressure on franc Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
