US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The widening in the trade deficit in October was driven by a large fall in soybean exports, which appears unlikely to be reversed over the next month or two. Together with the continued strength of... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Reviewing 2017 and looking ahead to 2018 In this Watch, we evaluate the performance of Nordic and Swiss economies in 2017 and set out our key calls for next year. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How hard would the collapse of Brexit talks hit sterling? 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Annual house price growth on the CoreLogic measure reached 7.0% in October, marking four consecutive months of gains over 6%. But even as inventory levels have seen further falls, active housing... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The rebound in merchandise export volumes in October, following four straight months of declines, is an encouraging start to the fourth quarter. The Bank of Canada will need far more convincing signs... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.5% y/y last month means the central bank is now all but certain to continue its easing cycle next week. We expect a 25bp cut to 8.00%. Inflation has probably... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Copper supply not a problem, for now There has been much chatter about an imminent tightening in the copper market, partly as a result of a shortfall in supply but also because of strong demand growth associated with the green economy... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m gain in Brazilian industrial production in October suggests that the sector started Q4 on a decent footing, and the latest survey data indicate that conditions in the sector should... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) November’s set of Markit/CIPS surveys provide reassurance that the economy has held on to its recent momentum in the fourth quarter so far, rather than slowing any further. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Warm weather weighed on clothing sales and therefore overall retail sales in October, but November’s rise in consumer confidence to a 16-year high suggests that sales growth rebounded last month. And... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy getting into gear Growth in South Africa’s economy remained strong in Q3, suggesting that the country’s recovery is gaining traction. This supports our view that growth will surprise to the upside in 2018. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) November’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that the real income squeeze may be constraining households’ discretionary purchases. But with inflation set to drop back in 2018, the outlook for... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the housing market regain its momentum in 2018? Neither the stronger economic recovery that we anticipate, nor the cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax for first time buyers announced in the Budget are likely to reinvigorate the housing market next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has so far shrugged off recent political upheaval. Meanwhile, Egypt’s economy appears to have strengthened as firms continue to benefit... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may not get its Christmas wish The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t say as much in the statement released after it left interest rates at 1.5% for the 16th month today, but its Christmas wish must surely be for much more economic... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) & GDP Partials (Q3) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP in the third quarter may have risen by just 0.2% q/q, but at least the 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests the fourth quarter may be a bit better. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
