US Housing Market Update Boom in apartment building helps children move out A boom in apartment construction has helped push the share of 18-24 year olds living with their parents to a six-year low. But, with no corresponding rise in the inventory of affordable homes for sale... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in profit share unlikely to last Our forecast that the S&P 500 will do no better than trend sideways for the next year is based on our belief that, with the unemployment rate at a 17-year low, most of the gains in nominal GDP next... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2017) & Labour Force Survey (Nov.) Despite the further slowdown in housing, the continued growth in the economy in the third quarter, and further decline in the unemployment rate in November will undoubtedly strengthen market... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Signs of China slowing weigh on industrials Commodity prices edged slightly higher in November on the back of a depreciation in the US dollar. Looking at the sector breakdown, most sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI moved higher. Industrial metals... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will India’s steel industry continue to boom? India has experienced a period of uninterrupted growth in steel production for more than a decade, unmatched by any other major producer. But the country faces challenges in creating a competitive... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The pay squeeze continues, but should abate next year The rise in inflation, primarily driven by sterling’s post-referendum slide, has taken its toll on consumer spending growth this year. However, we think that the worst of the real pay squeeze has... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing market concerns weigh on Swedish markets Concerns about the prospect of a house price correction were felt across Swedish markets in November, with the krona slumping, bond yields declining and equities falling. Most other Nordic and Swiss... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC extends deal, Gulf signals comfort with $60pb oil OPEC’s decision to extend its oil production cuts until the end of 2018 was widely expected and indicates that the Gulf countries are content with oil prices at around $60pb. Despite the deal, the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) The meagre 0.1% q/q increase in Brazil GDP in Q3 is not as bad as it looks at first sight. The big hit came from a contraction in agricultural production, which is volatile from quarter to quarter... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Do smaller, second cities now offer better value? With some of the tightest office markets, core European cities are set to see the best rates of rental growth over the 2018-21 period. However, with lower current yields and a weaker outlook for... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s November PMIs diverge … again China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs continued to diverge in November, with the former rising and the latter falling. We tend to put more faith in the unofficial index which shows that... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will follow the Bank of Korea? The central banks in Asia most likely to follow the Bank of Korea over the coming year in raising interest rates are those of Malaysia, India and Pakistan. However, with the exception of Pakistan, the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) November’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that growth in the sector has accelerated further and provides encouraging signs that this strength will be maintained in the coming months. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown Russia’s participation in the OPEC deal to cut oil output, which was rolled over last night, has so far had only a modest impact on the economy and can account for just 10% of the slowdown in annual... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI The small pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month, coming on the back of an improvement in October, suggests that the sector’s slump eased further in Q4. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
