Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s inflation data from Mexico, which showed a second consecutive monthly rise in the headline rate, has strengthened the case for further monetary tightening. We now expect policymakers to... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a threat is the unwinding of QE? Provided that they follow the blue-print set out by the US Fed, the world’s major central banks should be able to scale back their balance sheets over the coming years without huge adverse economic... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to jump in early 2018 We expect a spike in food price inflation to push headline CPI inflation up sharply over the months ahead. But with core inflation unlikely to pick up much further and PPI inflation set to fall... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. Timelier evidence suggests that the economy has performed well so far in Q4, setting... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) While the headline rate slowed, some shorter-term comparisons imply that house prices may be gaining renewed momentum. But gains on the other main indices remain more muted. And rising interest rates... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining production Mining production rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2% y/y in October. This provides the first solid sign that the economy retained momentum as it entered the fourth quarter. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five key questions on the Saudi Aramco privatisation The recent political upheaval in Saudi Arabia has cast fresh doubts over the government’s plans to sell a stake in the state-owned oil company, Aramco. Fears that the sale will be scrapped altogether... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows continued to be a non-issue last month. This has allowed the PBOC to step back from FX intervention which, over the medium term, should... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the weakness in the MSCI China Index spread? A couple of years ago, worries about China caused the last major correction in stock markets around the world. With the MSCI China Index plunging recently, could something similar be around the corner... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) Australia has managed to notch up 12 consecutive months of an international trade surplus, but only just as the surplus slumped from $1.6bn in September to $0.1bn in October. The pollution controls in... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fiscal stimulus will prompt faster tightening in 2018 At this stage, a 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting is all-but guaranteed. Of more interest will be whether the increased prospect of a near-term fiscal stimulus prompts officials to revise up... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will volatility in the Treasury market pick up in 2018? Volatility in the US Treasury market remains very low by the standards of the past. Although we expect it to rise next year as the Fed catches investors a bit off guard, we doubt that it will surge. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A large drop in crude stocks was eclipsed by an even bigger jump in gasoline inventories. Weak demand for fuel products and a rebound in imports would weigh on oil prices over the next few months. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada interest rate hike cycle over The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 1.00% today and its cautious policy statement indicate that, in contrast to the market view, it is in no hurry to raise rates again soon. We... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How worrying is the recent slide in the MSCI China Index? 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2018 In this note we publish a guide to elections that are scheduled across the emerging world in 2018. The calendar is busier than it was in 2017 but, whereas elections this year boosted the prospects for... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
