Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in Norway has probably reached a trough, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. With house price inflation also slowing very sharply, we suspect that at its meeting on Thursday the Norges... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in November primarily reflected the unwinding of the impact of last year’s depreciation of the pound and paves the way for the central bank to cut interest rates... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will population growth save the housing market? Australia’s rapid rate of population growth doesn’t mean that house prices will always rise as population is not the most important determinant of demand over short periods of time. In any case, it’s... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Gold vulnerable to further Fed tightening Commodity prices mostly fell this week. A stronger US dollar – following the US Senate’s approval of the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts” last Saturday – was the main reason behind the declines in prices... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage pressures still muted The latest wage data indicate that there’s little risk of inflation overshooting the Bank’s 2% inflation target anytime soon. For this reason among others, the Bank has nothing to gain by raising... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Although the University of Michigan consumer confidence index declined in December, against consensus expectations of a small rise, the index remains at a high level by past standards and consistent... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will manufacturing provide much-needed support to growth? There have been encouraging signs that stronger growth in manufacturing is helping to offset the slowdown in the consumer-facing parts of the services sector. Indeed, according to the Markit/CIPS... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin bubble is a curiosity, but not a big worry Unlike the bubbles in the tech sector in the late-1990s and in US residential property a few years later, a bursting of the bitcoin bubble should not have systemic, macroeconomic implications. The... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How much further can the labour market tighten? The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its policy meeting next week and, against a backdrop of tightening labour market conditions and gradually rising wage inflation... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly bigger than expected 228,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November all but guarantees another 25bp interest rate hike by the Fed next week, particularly with the unemployment rate... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European Monetary Fund is no silver bullet The European Commission’s (EC) latest proposals for euro-zone reform and integration centred on the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The EC plans... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU to give green light for phase two of negotiations With the European Commission satisfied that “sufficient progress” has been made on the first phase of the Brexit negotiations, an important milestone on the road to Brexit has been reached. There are... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.8% y/y in November, from 2.7% y/y in October, was in line with our forecast but a bit smaller than the consensus had expected (2.9% y/y). Either way, none of this... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should we be more bullish on French industrial? Solid economic growth, structural changes, as well as tightening availability and limited land for development will support particularly robust rental growth in Paris in the next few years, where we... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak infrastructure to remain a drag on growth prospects Many countries in South and South East Asia invest too little on infrastructure. Fiscal constraints mean the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon, with the result that poor infrastructure is... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
