Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget The recent rise in oil prices has raised some hopes that Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget – to be announced next week – will unveil a shift towards looser fiscal policy to support the economy. However, we... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Dec.) Preliminary business surveys for December, which were published today, indicate that advanced economies in aggregate ended 2017 growing at a heady pace of around 4% annualised. They also suggest that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Buying still better than renting in the long run Based on the current tax environment, our forecasts for house prices and rents show that buying a median-priced home is better than renting one for any holding period of six years or longer. By making... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold shrugs off Fed rate hike Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.6% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the third time this year and the fifth time in this tightening cycle. The lack of... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.8% m/m rise in headline retail sales in November was a lot better than consensus expectations and, together with the upward revision to October’s gain, suggests that real consumption growth has... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives no hints of another hike As was widely expected, December’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting was a bit of a non-event. However, if we are right in expecting the economy to perform more strongly than the MPC expects, that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2018 The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities come off the boil Commodity indices took a tumble at the start of December, coinciding with a slight appreciation of the US dollar. The downturn in commodity prices over the month was broad-based, with falls in all the... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets The Turkish central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller hike in its late liquidity rate today than markets had anticipated seems to reflect political pressure not to tighten policy substantially. The... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The official retail sales figures suggest that “Black Friday” discounts provided a significant boost to high-street spending in November. But consumers may now have done the bulk of their Christmas... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate hikes next year in the Philippines The Philippines central bank (BSP) left rates unchanged at 3.0% today while also downplaying fears that the economy is overheating. While both financial markets and the consensus are expecting... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long way off The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Nov.) Even after some upward revisions to October’s figure, commercial property investment activity rose significantly in November. As has been the case for some time, overseas demand was the main driver of... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sits tight as franc still seen as “highly valued” The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
