Emerging Europe Economics Update EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next? The decision by the European Commission to trigger an Article 7 procedure against Poland is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy in the short-term. Poland’s structural fund inflows can’t be... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: ANC drama caps good year for African assets The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 This time last year, the consensus view was that the UK economy would grow by only 1% or so in 2017. But it now looks as though the economy will expand by a more reasonable 1.5%. Of course, there is a... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Nov.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.7% y/y increase in global steel production in November and a 5.2% rise in the year-to-date with all major steel-producing countries recording increases... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.) The robust CBI Distributive Trades survey for December suggests that November’s strength in the official retail sales figures should be sustained in the final month of the year. 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) The latest output data for November point to a tighter aluminium market. We had always expected this to happen as the planned closures in China began last month. However, growth in demand has also... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo office rents to surprise to the upside in 2018 Prime rental value growth in Oslo is likely to enjoy a bumper year in 2018, with rental values set to climb by around 8%. But the consensus has yet to pick up on the momentum that is starting to build... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals gradual shift towards tighter policy The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households will continue to struggle After slowing sharply in the third quarter, there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks about the prospects for real consumption growth in Australia in the fourth quarter. In particular... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2018 budget unveils modest fiscal loosening The Saudi budget released this afternoon showed that the government has already started to loosen fiscal policy and will continue to do so in 2018. This is a more accommodative stance than we had... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal stimulus will provide only temporary boost The Republicans' long-awaited tax reform bill, which looks set to be signed into law this week, represents the first major legislative victory for President Donald Trump and should provide a modest... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should other central banks follow the Fed? There are reasons why the US Federal Reserve should be further along the path to policy normalisation than other major central banks. But there are also reasons why they should not lag too far behind. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook Unsurprisingly December’s uneventful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting barely caused a ripple in financial markets, leaving market participants’ expectations for future interest rates all but... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC still dovish, but tide may be slowly turning The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike an extremely dovish tone but, reading between the lines, it does seem that the rhetoric is gradually starting to shift... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A strong 2017 – but 2018 likely to be more challenging 2017 has been another strong year for asset markets in Latin America but there are already signs that 2018 will be more challenging. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
