US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) Mortgage applications for home purchase were flat in December, and have made no upward progress for two years. While there have been signs of life in the home sales data in recent months, the absence... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Solid job gains will drive unemployment rate lower Our econometric model points to a 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, which would be well above the average monthly gain of 174,000 over the first 11 months of last year. Manufacturing... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Brazil & Mexico probably picked up in Q4 We wouldn’t put much weight on the dip in Mexico’s business surveys in December since they have become a less reliable indicator of shifts in economic conditions over the past year. Indeed, the hard... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) Recent fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries in the year to November. While Ireland and Portugal are on course to outperform their 2017 state budget balance... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key views for how 2018 will shape up After three consecutive years of mostly yield-driven double-digit capital growth, the outlook for European commercial property in 2018 is less positive – we believe that the prime market has now... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect Further sharp falls in Egyptian inflation in the coming months are likely to prompt the central bank to embark on a monetary easing cycle. We expect the benchmark interest rate to be cut to 13.25% by... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Dec.) Aggregate construction activity eased back in December, breaking a run of two consecutive monthly rises. Within the total, the commercial property sector acted as a drag on activity. 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Unemployment (Nov. & Dec.) The German unemployment rate held at a record low in December, suggesting that wage growth should pick up at least a little in the year ahead. So while the recent pace of employment growth seems... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Optimism fuels a late-year rally Commodity prices surged in December as the US dollar weakened. Looking at the sector breakdown, most sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI rose, led by industrial metals. Agriculturals were the only exception... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI rose to a near seven-year high in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2017 in very good shape. We expect 2018 to be another year of strong... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House prices continued to rise steadily in November, in both monthly and annual terms. That seems consistent with the exceptionally low levels of inventory, as well as the continued strength of the... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran If the recent protests in Iran rumble on or even spread, the resulting disruptions to activity are likely to weigh on the country’s economy but the fallout for the rest of the MENA economies, as well... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) December’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the sector provided valuable support to GDP growth in Q4. 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest a strong end to 2017 China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in December, but both point to a solid performance at end-2017. However, we remain cautious on the outlook for 2018 and expect tighter... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs suggest that industry in both countries ended 2017 on a strong note. But only in Sweden do we expect healthy economic growth to put sustained upward... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
