Japan Economics Update Price pressures strengthening again Japan’s November activity data suggest that the economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter ofgrowth in Q4. And with the labour market the tightest in at least two decades, underlying... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing sectors across most of the region ended 2017 on a strong note. Indeed, the surveys for Central Europe and Turkey are consistent with... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Foreigners aren't to blame for high house prices New housing data showing that non-residents account for only a small fraction of the housing stock and claims that these foreigners aren’t to blame for high housing prices have been meet with ridicule... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The stagnation in monthly GDP in October, partly due to a significant decline in mining output, indicate that the economy lost some momentum in the fourth quarter. Even allowing for a rebound in... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook 2018 will be as good as it gets It is hard to see how the US economy could have a bad year in 2018. GDP growth has been gaining momentum in 2017, the global economy is experiencing a strong synchronised upswing, borrowing costs... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods / Personal Income & Spending (Nov.) The strong gains in real consumption and durable goods in November suggest that the economic expansion maintained its recent impressive vigour into the end of 2017. GDP growth looks to have been close... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 2018: How can it all go wrong? Our forecast that GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% next year is boringly in line with the consensus. Given the constellation of positive factors boosting economic growth, however, it’s hard to be... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we think that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q3) Christmas has come early with the ONS’ annual data deluge before the festive break. The upward revision to annual growth paints 2017 in a better light, while the latest data provided a more balanced... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing starts and home sales show signs of life Housing activity is finally showing some signs of life. New home sales and single-family housing starts have both reached 10-year highs, as builders have started to respond to very tight market... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the Catalan election mean for the economy? The Catalan election result seems unlikely to prompt a major push for independence any time soon, so we doubt that it will have a material economic impact. As a result, the Spanish economy looks set... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily 2018 unlikely to be another barnstorming year for risky assets 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly 2017 ends on a positive note The prices of most commodities edged higher this week, bolstered by a weaker US dollar. There is now evidence that the government-mandated winter cuts in China have started to take their toll on... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A vintage year, but is the best yet to come? The euro-zone economy performed better in 2017 than we and most forecasters had anticipated at the year’s outset. Investment growth picked up despite intense political uncertainty. And while a rise in... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies weaken despite hawkish central banks The Swedish and Norwegian central banks delivered fairly hawkish assessments of the outlook for monetary policy this month, but that did not stop their currencies from depreciating. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2018 and beyond We expect 2018 to be another year of strong global growth, helped by a steady rise in employment and supportive policies, including a small fiscal stimulus in the US. In most advanced economies core... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
