Canada Economic Outlook Falling household wealth another downside risk Although GDP growth this year was the fastest in three years, the pick-up was partly due to a bounce back from the earlier oil price shock. Unfortunately, the bigger issue now is that declining house... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Housing starts rose for the second month in a row in November, with a 3.3% m/m gain pushing them to their highest level since October 2016. Encouragingly, it was the single-family sector which drove... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rise in 2018 EM inflation was steady between October and November, but the big picture is that it is up from the multi-year trough reached in the summer and will continue to rise over the course of 2018. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The disappointing batch of Russian activity data for November suggests that GDP growth may be on course to slow to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q4. And the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for 2018, of... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch China’s slowing oil imports should weigh on prices Strong Chinese demand for oil this year has helped to rebalance the market. However, a slowing economy, an increasing focus on anti-pollution measures in major cities and a reduction in strategic... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3) Housing starts dropped for the second consecutive quarter in Q3 2017, suggesting that the weakness of the wider market may be starting to take its toll on the housebuilding recovery. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets The vote due later this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski seems likely to pass. If removed, Vice President Martin Vizcarra would take over and, while a... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Bank of Japan has been warning that low policy rates could eventually prove contractionary if they depress banks’ profits and capital and reduce their willingness to lend. In reality though... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Dec.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q3) December’s small decline in German Ifo business sentiment from a record high suggests that the outlook for next year is bright despite the uncertain political backdrop and the prospect of ECB QE... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Daesh downfall offers respite for smaller economies Political commentary in the region has focussed on the recent upheaval in Saudi Arabia, but one development that has received little attention is the downfall of the militant group, Islamic State (IS... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s mini-banking crisis rumbles on The recovery in the Russian economy this year has been stronger than most expected, but ongoing problems among small and mid-tier banks have slipped under the radar. This was underlined last week by... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Just how overvalued is the US stock market now? Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratio for the S&P 500 has climbed to around 32. The last time it rose to such a high level was in the late 1990s, shortly before equity prices in... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy much cooler as year ends Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions stabilised in November but with growth much weaker than it was in the middle of the year. We expect a further slowdown during 2018. 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal’s bonds outperform Italy’s again in 2018? Government bond yields in Portugal started 2017 almost twice as high as those in Italy, but look set to end the year at around the same level. While we think that yields will edge up across the region... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
