Global Inflation Watch Core inflation likely to rise only gradually Many advanced economies are close to full employment, but this is likely to lead to only a small increase in price pressures. We expect the core inflation rate to edge up in the euro-zone, Japan and... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bp today caught the market (and ourselves) by surprise but the scale of the cut, as well as the tone of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Who gains most from ECB corporate bond purchases? At this week’s press conference, Mario Draghi confirmed that the ECB’s corporate bond purchases will continue in “sizeable” quantities next year. The exact amount that it intends to buy is unclear... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2018 to be the last year of yield falls Solid economic growth prospects in most of Europe bode well for occupier demand and prime rents in the next few years. However, better growth is likely to be a double-edged sword for commercial... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Period of strong capital value growth nearing an end Against a backdrop of solid economic growth, the outlook for occupier demand and rental growth is encouraging. But with prime property yields close to finding a floor, and tighter monetary policy on... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Irish GDP (Q3) The narrowing of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in October revealed that the external sector had a poor start to Q4. But with the global economy in good health and world trade growing at a decent... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rise in HK interest rates to weigh on property prices Market interest rates in Hong Kong have jumped recently, reaching a nine-year high of 1.3% after the Fed’s rate hike this week. The unusually large spread between HK and US interbank rates that has... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone withstand ECB tapering? We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong year for EM exports, but 2018 set to be softer 2017 was the first year since 2014 in which EM exports recorded positive growth. However, two of the key props to this year’s export recovery are likely to weaken over the coming quarters – meaning... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: Where next for the rupee? The fall in the Pakistani rupee over the past week has once again put the spotlight on the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018 Central banks in Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but both accompanying statements left the door open for further easing. With inflation rising in Chile, the window for cuts is... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A mixed end to 2017 This year saw a tepid, stop-start economic recovery across most of Africa, and figures from recent months suggest that 2017 ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Growth seems to have picked up... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer to save MYEFO windfall for future tax cuts We expect the Treasurer will use his recent windfall of up to $10bn to emphasize in Monday’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that he is on track to generate a budget surplus in 2020/21 and also... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Decent start to festive period With real incomes under pressure from subdued nominal pay growth and rising inflation, the strong rise in retail sales volumes in November is encouraging. However, spending on the high street might... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM currencies do not appear overvalued Although EM currencies are much stronger on average against the dollar now than they were at the start of 2017, most of them still do not appear significantly overvalued. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) China’s latest activity and investment data point to more subdued metals demand than earlier in the year. Despite curbs on supply, we still think prices are reflecting undue optimism about demand. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
