Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) October’s small rise in industrial production marked a soft start to Q4 but the surveys suggest that the sector will finish the year on a positive note. Meanwhile, employment data for Q3 showed that... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) October’s Labour Force Survey showed that employment fell. Yet, the unemployment rate held firm and wage growth improved. In big picture terms, the data are still consistent with rents rising next... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic policy rate on hold next year Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) noted that looser fiscal policy is a short-term risk to the monetary policy outlook. While we expect the... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the FOMC meeting move the Treasury market? It is possible that there will be very little reaction in the Treasury market after the end of the FOMC meeting today. After all, the implied probability of a 25bp rate hike has been close to 100% for... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again) The sheer pace of annual GDP growth in Turkey in Q3 was flattered by base effects, but a closer look at the data shows worrying signs that strong growth has contributed to the recent jump in inflation... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The death of inflation targeting? There are many reasons to think that inflation targeting has had its day. The framework has already evolved to some extent, with central banks adopting “flexible” inflation-targeting and... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from markets in 2018 Indian financial markets have had a mixed year in 2017. Equities have surged and the rupee has strengthened a touch, but bonds have sold off. Looking ahead to 2018, we think that equities are unlikely... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The leap in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December will be a welcome sight for retailers in the middle of the all-important Christmas shopping period. Nonetheless, with household... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Are macro-economic factors positive for agriculturals? The weather is arguably the main determinant of agricultural commodity prices. However, there are other factors that influence prices, including the oil price, the US dollar, global growth prospects... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Denmark weak in Q3, Sweden powered ahead The Nordic and Swiss Q3 GDP data revealed large differences between the best and worst performing economies. A quarterly contraction of 0.6% meant that Denmark underperformed the rest of the pack by a... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Recovery in home sales cuts inventory to record lows Home sales are showing signs of life, with both new and existing home sales rising for the second month in a row in October. However, the inventory of homes for sale has continued to decline, and that... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are Treasuries braced for any change to the Fed’s projections? 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does a flattening yield curve mean for gold? While a flattening US yield curve has, at times, been associated with a rising gold price, the relationship is far from perfect. Indeed, although we expect the curve to continue to flatten over the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to stronger wage pressures next year Although small firms are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook, the latest surveys suggest that business investment growth may soon start to slow. But with demand for labour as strong as... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) Mexican industrial production contracted for a second consecutive month in October, but this was due largely to a drop in utilities output, which reflects lingering disruption from September’s... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated to a 15-month high in November, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. Monetary policy is likely to stay on hold in the very near term, but... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
