Bank of Canada Watch Bank could hike interest rates again as soon as next week The Bank of Canada will increase interest rates again early this year, possibly as soon as next week, particularly after learning that businesses are more optimistic. That said, we still believe... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 3.0% y/y last month leaves it right at the lower bound of the central bank’s 4.5±1.5% target range, which should provide room for a further 25bp cut in the Selic... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest hard data for Q4 supports the view that the UK economy maintained a reasonable amount of momentum, and offers some tentative signs that net trade may have provided a bigger boost to growth. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of rising oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan about to raise its yield target? This week’s reduction in the Bank of Japan’s scheduled government bond purchases doesn’t signal that it is about to lift the yield target. The Bank purchases whatever is needed to maintain the target... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s early reinvestments unlikely to delay rate rise While the Riksbank’s early bond reinvestments will make policy slightly more expansionary in the short term, the minutes of December’s meeting suggest that the decision to bring forward reinvestments... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Dec.) A surprising fall in activity among overseas investors left the monthly total for investment deals at £4.3bn, 11% below the average seen in past Decembers. That said, not only does that fall in... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European property looks increasingly late-cycle Reduced capital raising totals for the second consecutive year and a decrease in the proportion of funds meeting their fund-raising targets hint at pricing concerns amongst investors. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Dec.) Despite December’s jump in inflation in Norway, underlying price pressures remain subdued. With house price inflation falling further into negative territory, we suspect that it will be a long time... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) A further sharp drop in Egyptian inflation in December means that the central bank is likely to embark on an easing cycle at the next monetary policy meeting in February. We expect inflation and... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy shrugging off euro’s rise At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to a pick-up in wage pressures in 2018 Small firms remain optimistic about the outlook, but tighter labour market conditions are becoming an increasing constraint on expansion. That points to a pick-up in wage pressures and continued... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homes sales enjoy strong end to the year Home sales enjoyed a strong end to the year, with both new and existing sales now close to 11-year highs. But that boost to sales was not accompanied by any rise in mortgage applications for home... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Decline in credit spreads not likely to last a lot longer 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver will continue to underperform gold in 2018 At first glance, the recent poor performance of silver would appear surprising given that both gold and industrial metals prices rallied in 2017. However, we think that reduced safe-haven demand has... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation to a fresh 18-year high of 6.8% y/y in December will probably lead to further calls for Banxico to raise rates again at its policy meeting on 9th February. While another... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
