Emerging Europe Economics Focus Too soon to write off Russia’s recovery Russia’s economy lost steam in the second half of 2017, but we expect the recovery to get back underway this year as the drag from lower oil production fades and demand strengthens. We continue to... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Freezing winter weather heats up energy prices Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage credit availability edged up in Q4, while the supply of credit for commercial property held steady. But while conditions for households are expected to improve further in Q1, commercial... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s jump in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector finished last year on a strong footing, adding to the evidence that overall GDP growth picked up in Q4. And the... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FDI measures to have limited success Historically, a low level of foreign investment has been one factor constraining the productive potential of India’s economy. The Modi government has made some progress in addressing this. But FDI... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will minimum wage hikes hurt Korea’s economy? The South Korean government hopes that steep hikes to the minimum wage will provide a boost to private consumption and help to reduce inequality, but there is a risk that the policy may do more harm... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) The much stronger than expected surge in retail sales values in November, alongside the decent rise in October, suggests that real consumption growth bounced back in the fourth quarter. It also... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks continued to fall last week but product stocks have increased sharply since November as demand from refineries has not been matched by higher product consumption. This may pressure... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press conference highlighted that a hawkish faction exists on the Council. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Key market calls for 2018 and beyond We are forecasting that the Fed will be a bit more hawkish this year than the markets appear to be envisaging. In our view, the US economy, which is already close to full capacity, will start to slow... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of EMs Our indicators suggest that, while financial risks in EMs have diminished over the past couple of years, pockets of vulnerability exist in several countries including Turkey, Hong Kong and Singapore. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the global recovery de-synchronise in 2018? While the global economy is set to grow strongly again in 2018, the recovery is likely to de-synchronise somewhat as China slows before the US, and Europe remains strong. This could have important... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed’s quantitative tightening has so far had little impact on the monetary aggregates, but the effects of rising short-term interest rates are becoming more visible. Meanwhile, after slowing... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC’s hands are tied over US Treasury holdings A Bloomberg report that Chinese officials are considering halting purchases of US government debt triggered a sell-off in the US Treasury market today. In fact, China has not been buying US debt for... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
