China Data Response GDP (Q4) & Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic growth in China probably slowed last quarter, even though the official figures paint a picture of continued stability. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) There were few signs in December’s RICS survey that the housing market slowdown is about to end. Both new buyer enquiries and new sales instructions fell. And the decline in newly agreed sales is... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating rental growth in 2018? Our forecasts for all-property rental growth in 2018 sit towards the top the current consensus. Given our above-consensus economic growth forecasts, we see little scope for much weaker rental growth... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) The strong rise in employment in December rounded off an exceptional year for the labour market. Jobs growth is unlikely to be as strong this year, but the labour market will still make further... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Metals and energy power ahead Commodity indices started 2018 on solid ground, holding onto their end-2017 highs and supported by a depreciation of the US dollar. All sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index rose over the month... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to hike interest rates further The Bank of Canada’s raised interest rates to 1.25% today, from 1.00%, and its more upbeat economic outlook suggests that it will hike rates again later this year, probably in April. In contrast to... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not yet a serious problem As a net oil importer, the recent rise in oil prices should eventually be a negative for the US economy, but the near-term impact may actually be positive. Mining investment is set to rebound in the... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.9% m/m surge in industrial production in December was mostly due to a spike in utilities and stronger mining activity. Even so, underlying growth in manufacturing output remains strong and there... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil? The cyclical forces driving Brazil’s economic recovery are likely to strengthen over the next 6-12 months and our GDP forecast for 2018 remains above the consensus. Our bigger concern lies around... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4 Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tougher times around the corner for EM dollar bonds Sentiment towards emerging market (EM) dollar bonds has remained remarkably positive recently. The spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global is around its lowest since 2014. Issuance has surged. And flows... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The further rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in January adds to the recent run of encouraging news about the health of the household sector and suggests that the risks to our... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
