Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks last week is somewhat at odds with the rebound in production and fall in refinery runs. But what is clear is that gasoline stocks have continued to build on... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Will UK equities continue to climb? UK equity prices have risen substantially over the past month alongside those in other developed markets, with the FTSE 100 up by around 3%, to 7,700 points. What’s more, this gain in the FTSE has not... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Higher interest rates a big gamble The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates to 1.25% yesterday has reinforced expectations of further rate hikes later this year. According to futures markets, there is a 22% chance of a... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the Fed abandon inflation targeting? In the long run we suspect the Fed will move away from rules-based inflation targeting and shift to a more discretionary regime that focuses on financial stability as well as price stability and full... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will strong global demand support China in 2018? Continued strength in foreign demand should help cushion some of the slowdown that we expect in China’s domestic economy this year. But it won’t prevent growth from weakening. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Housing starts had a poor end to 2017. An 8.2% m/m drop in December meant starts finished the year 6% down compared to a year ago. The single-family sector drove the contraction in starts. But, at the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018 Early data for December suggest that EM export growth finished 2017 on a slightly softer footing and support our view that trade growth will slow this year. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish With consumer price inflation set to rise gradually, but house prices falling, we think that the Norges Bank will reiterate next week that interest rates will not rise until the autumn. We suspect... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish language South African policymakers held their key rate at 6.75% today, but a dovish tone suggests that they have abandoned November’s tightening bias. We expect that the next move will be a 25bp cut in early... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise? After some brief respite, US Treasuries have come under fire again. Indeed, the 10-year yield has now rebounded to its highest level since last spring. We expect its rise to continue this year, as the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) Today’s report showed an unexpected rise in OPEC’s production in December, despite a dramatic decline in Venezuela’s output. At the same time, the group made a small upward revision to its... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Indonesia likely by mid-year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% came as no surprise. Although the central bank’s accompanying statement suggests that further easing is not imminent... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer The Turkish MPC’s decision to keep all of its key interest rates unchanged today was accompanied by a statement that indicates the Committee is more determined to bring inflation back under control... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going? Hungary’s central bank has started two new policies this week aimed at bringing down bond yields, including the first QE programme in an emerging market. But there are reasons to think that the impact... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
