Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jan.) The preliminary business surveys for January, published by Markit today, suggest that economic growth in advanced economies may have gained even more momentum at the beginning of the year. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Nov.) The FHFA reported a moderate 0.4%m/m rise in house prices in November, and the annual growth rate is now at a 10-month low. Despite tight market conditions, active housing demand is being constrained... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for March rate hike Janet Yellen’s final FOMC meeting will pass with little fanfare, but the language of the accompanying policy statement looks set to strike a more hawkish tone. That would leave the Fed on course to... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, Trump and trade: the path ahead The trade protection measures that have so far been announced by the Trump administration are fairly small in scope and will not have much of a bearing on the outlook for EM exports. However, we’ve... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Revised TPP deal still good news for Asian members The agreement to press ahead with the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a decent boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia, but it... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov/Dec.) The latest labour market figures provided further reassurance that the economy held up in the fourth quarter of last year. With survey indicators suggesting that jobs and wage growth should continue... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Nov.) There was nothing in today’s labour market figures to suggest that the steady picture of occupier demand conditions, which has typified the commercial property market over the past few quarters, is... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy weathering diplomatic crisis The latest data from Qatar reinforce the picture that the economy has weathered the diplomatic crisis with regional powers. That said, hopes for a resolution to the crisis have been dashed by events... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s jump in the euro-zone Composite PMI marked an exceptionally strong start to 2018. But while the data appear to strengthen the case for the ECB to “revisit” its forward guidance early this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Industry hits a sweet spot The latest data suggest that India’s industrial sector has strengthened significantly in recent months, underlining that any disruption from the introduction of the GST in mid-2017 was short-lived... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation edged up to 4.7% in December, but we expect that price pressures will ease in 2018. The next interest rate move will be a cut, though we think this will come after a long pause... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack 2017 ends with a bang The flow of economic data released in Australia and New Zealand in recent weeks has been encouraging and suggests that after slowing in the third quarter of 2017, both economies regained some momentum... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update TPP deal overshadowed by NAFTA uncertainty The news that Canada has reached a deal on a new free trade agreement with the remaining ten TPP countries is no game changer since, even in the long term, the boost to Canadian GDP will be a trivial... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What effect is Trump’s repatriation tax having on the markets? 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A change to our house price coverage We are making a change to our regular coverage of house prices, and will now provide a data response on the FHFA house price index, rather than the CoreLogic index. That change reflects both practical... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
