Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s activity data for Russia suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole may have slowed to a disappointing 1.0% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. But conditions improved right at the end of last year... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stabilises at the end of 2017 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions stabilised at the end of last year after a fairly sharp slowdown since the middle of 2017. Growth may pick up slightly in the near term... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) All the main balances of the CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey fell back in January. Nonetheless, the survey’s past relationship with the official figures continues to point to solid retail sales... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Both remortgaging and house purchase lending fell sharply in December, marking a downbeat end to 2017. But there is little evidence to suggest these falls are the start of a sharp downward trend. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment is another sign that the economy is going great guns, but with the euro so strong the ECB seems unlikely to give a firm end date for its asset purchases... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing risks to deter Norges Bank from raising rates While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jan.) & Unemploy. (Dec.) The Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But this is unlikely to prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy later this year. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A sweet spot for Italian retail rents The combination of strong consumer spending growth and rising tourism appears to have been behind the sharp rise in prime retail rents in Milan and Rome last year. With these conditions set to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly TPP and the dazzling dollar The resurrection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership signals that Australia is open for business, but it won’t significantly boost economic growth. A weakening in the Australian dollar from the dazzling... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) For all the talk about how the incoming Governor will deal with employment being added to the RBNZ’s mandate, the latest data suggest he may spend most of his time wondering why inflation is so low. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fall in crude stocks last week was overshadowed by rising US output, lower refinery runs and ballooning gasoline inventories. Indeed, US oil production is now within touching distance of 10m bpd... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2017) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.9% y/y increase in global steel production in December and a 5.3% rise in 2017 as a whole. Expectations that the capacity closures in China would prompt a... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales dropped by 3.6% m/m in December, reversing much of November’s surprise jump. That left sales up a marginal 1.1% over 2017, and just 2.6% over the past two years. The lack of... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will stockbuilding weigh on growth again this year? Stockbuilding probably knocked about 0.2pp off GDP growth last year. But there are a number of reasons to think that won’t be repeated, leaving us happy with our above-consensus forecast for GDP... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Could irrational exuberance propel the S&P 500 towards 5,000? 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
