Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the party last without the punchbowl? The party in the markets has remained in full swing while the Fed has emptied its punchbowl slowly. This year, though, the US central bank is likely to drain it more quickly. And in some other major... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary Estimate of GDP (Q4) The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy picked up pace in the final three months of 2017, rounding off a solid, albeit unspectacular year. This supports our view that the... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Euro-zone lending growth remained healthy in December, and with interest rates likely to rise only very slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Cycle to turn in 2018 Most economies in Emerging Europe had a very strong end to 2017, but we expect regional growth to soften in the coming quarters. The economic cycle in Central Europe is now looking mature and growth... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY18/19, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be under pressure to loosen policy ahead... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade thriving after Trump’s first year It will surely come as no surprise if President Donald Trump delivers another protectionist speech at Davos tomorrow. But his actions may continue to fall a long way short of his rhetoric. In any case... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The 9.3% m/m drop in new home sales in December reversed some, but not all, of November’s surge and left sales up by 14% over 2017 as a whole. A strong labour market, and the shortage of existing... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Patient ECB to move more slowly than markets think The ECB did not alter its forward guidance today, stressing that it will exercise patience and persistence when normalising policy and voicing concern about the strong euro. The currency’s further... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf: higher oil prices prompt shift away from austerity The recent rally in oil prices has led governments in the Gulf to move away from the harsh austerity of recent years. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia announced a raft of bonuses for public sector... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) Today’s RICS Survey showed a slight deterioration in tenant demand and a softening in rental expectations. Nevertheless, investor demand appears to be holding up well. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth set to resume upward trend in 2018 We estimate that payroll employment growth rebounded to an above-trend 200,000 in January. That may have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new cycle-low of 4.0%, which would provide... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
