Emerging Europe Economics Update Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports The Central European economies have enjoyed a period of strong economic growth, but exports have been a relative (and perhaps surprising) weak spot. This appears to reflect a general weakening of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Flying start to the year for EM equities unlikely to last 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are bond markets too sanguine about Italy? Investors appear to be calm ahead of Italy’s forthcoming election, and we think that they are right not to panic. That said, the next government is likely to be more lax with fiscal policy, so we... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey points to sentiment softening The latest RICS global commercial property monitor for Q4 2017 indicates that there has been no significant change to the upbeat mood across European markets compared to Q3. This is perhaps not too... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Foreign workers continue to ease labour shortages One widely-overlooked factor driving Japan’s growth in recent years has been a surge in the number of foreign workers. This appears to be continuing, as employers face labour shortages and recent... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Getting back into gear We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do high oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices does not alter the outlook for Asia’s economies. But if prices were to rise significantly further, we would be most concerned about the impact on India and Sri Lanka. 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly It is all about the dollar Most commodity prices rose this week on the back of further broad-based falls in the US dollar. At the same time, the euro strengthened as ECB President Mario Draghi struck a fairly positive note at... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the sterling rally continue? There are some reasons to think that the pound’s recent rally may struggle to go much further. Rising US interest rates could prompt something of a recovery in the ailing dollar, while Brexit... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts? The surge in the stock market and wave of firms announcing wage increases and bonuses since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed have fuelled optimism that tax cuts are reviving “animal spirits” and... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slight slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter means the economy fell just short of the 3% growth targeted by the White House, but it was entirely due to a huge drag from inventories and net... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain The decision by a Brazilian court to uphold the corruption conviction against former President Lula complicates his plans to run for the presidency this year but it doesn't finish them altogether. The... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
