Energy Update How much of the rise in oil prices is due to the dollar? We think that about half of the surge in oil prices since the start of December can be attributed to the slump in the US dollar. However, a stronger dollar should put some downward pressure on oil... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation largely reflected energy effects, so won’t be a major concern to the ECB. But December’s labour market data emphasise that there is still slack in the labour... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will property wilt in 2018? The price gains of recent years have left housing looking expensive and commercial property looking fully-valued. The good news is that interest rate rises on the scale that we anticipate are unlikely... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Narrowing of Gulf interbank spreads has gone too far The spread of interbank interest rates in the Gulf over those in the US has narrowed to its lowest level since 2008. While we correctly argued in 2016 that spreads would begin to narrow, we think that... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in fairly good spirits. And with real earnings likely to recover in the second half of this year, there is scope for... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment activity closes 2017 up by 9% Investor demand seems to be holding up well. However, we suspect that counter veiling forces on the economy, pricing, and sentiment will mean that investment marks time in 2018. As such, and with... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4 Advanced) Taiwan’s GDP growth rose in Q4 to the fastest in nearly three years. We think the economy will cool over the quarters ahead. On the plus side, domestic demand is likely to hold up well supported by... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong start to 2018 Although they have fallen in the last couple of days, Chinese equities are still up sharply this year so far. The renminbi has also appreciated against the US dollar, taking it back to where it was... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) A homeowner vacancy rate close to a 17-year low didn’t prevent a welcome rise in the homeownership rate to 64% in the final quarter of 2017. But the lack of homes for sale has driven more households... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects still bright, after strong Q4 National accounts data published in the past few days confirm that the world economy maintained its momentum in Q4 last year, and all the signs are that it has started 2018 on a strong note. We expect... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate hikes to be the exception rather than the norm Malaysia and Pakistan have both hiked interest rates over the past week, and while the consensus and financial markets are expecting most other central banks in the region to tighten policy in 2018... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay demands won’t see inflation surge Recent pay demands by German trade unions may look like a sign that the economy’s strength is causing a surge in inflationary pressure. But the demands are very unlikely to be met in full. We expect a... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth loses steam in Q4 Our estimates for aggregate EM GDP growth suggest it hit a five-year high over 2017 as a whole, but there are signs that growth slowed in the final quarter of last year. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January, which beat consensus expectations but was roughly in line with our own estimate, suggests that real consumption growth... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Saving rate going to zero…and that’s okay (probably) The household saving rate fell to a 12-year low of 2.4% of disposable income in December and, based on the recent surge in the values of equities and real estate, it could fall all the way to zero. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
