Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Winter weather and weaker dollar lift energy prices We expect the prices of most energy commodities to fall back over the next few months as the weather normalises and the dollar stabilises. Indeed, prices fell at the start of February amid a broader... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects The widening of budget deficits in Hungary and Romania means that the loose fiscal policy pursued in recent years is set to come to an end in 2018. Growth is likely to slow (sharply in the case of... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Dec.) Despite falling in December, Swedish private production growth accelerated over Q4. With the economy’s strong performance causing inflationary pressures to build, the Riksbank remains on track to... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggests that high-street spending growth maintained a steady pace at the start of 2018. But with inflation set to fall back this year, easing the squeeze on real... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector experiencing a renaissance Last week, Egypt’s President al-Sisi inaugurated the Zohr gas field which, combined with the onset of production from a number of other fields, will provide a sizeable boost to GDP growth over the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Is the equity slump a sign of things to come? Falling global bond and equity prices in the past few days reflect upward revisions to expectations for inflation and US interest rates, rather than any concern that global growth is faltering. In the... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM governments and the great bond sell-off EM governments with the largest financing needs are, in theory at least, most vulnerable to a global spike in bond yields. This includes Egypt, Brazil, South Africa and India. However, it’s worth... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German current account to remain under scrutiny Recent accusations that Germany has “cooked the books” to downplay its current account surplus are wide of the mark. But the surplus is clearly very large and seems unlikely to narrow in the next... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA economy The worsening drought in the Western Cape threatens to unleash a humanitarian crisis in Cape Town. But even an acute crisis probably wouldn’t be enough to snuff out South Africa’s economic recovery. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Is the rally starting to fizzle out? The prices of most metals continued to make gains in the first month of 2018. The persistent depreciation of the US dollar supported the prices of all the metals, but notably that of gold. However... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales followed a sharp rise in November and the high level of consumer confidence suggests that sales growth should soon pick up. Meanwhile, the final PMI for... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) Following falls in the manufacturing and construction surveys released last week, the weak January services sector survey suggests that the economy lost the momentum it gained in Q4 at the start of... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) The drop in PMIs in the Gulf last month appears to reflect the impact of recent austerity measures, including the introduction of a new value-added tax, at the start of this year. But conditions... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices take a tumble on payrolls The prices of many commodities drifted lower over the course of the week. But the negative tone was set more firmly on Friday by the release of data showing strong growth in US non-farm payrolls and... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
