UK Economics Update MPC paves the way for a May rate hike The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our long-held view that the Monetary Policy Committee would become less dovish as the economy beat expectations. Indeed, we expect the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian consumer prices last month, of 2.9% y/y, unchanged from December, reinforces our view that the rise in inflation over the course of this year will be... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Activity surveys strong as equities fall While equity markets in the euro-zone have recently declined alongside those in the US, activity surveys continue to paint a very healthy picture of the economy. Indeed, the euro-zone Composite PMI... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in January. Admittedly, this partly reflects seasonal volatility associated with the Chinese New Year. But it also seems likely that demand from the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No changes to Philippines policy rate in 2018 Despite January’s jump in inflation, the Philippines central bank (BSP) left rates on hold at its first meeting of the year. While most analysts think that BSP will be forced to tighten policy this... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to test the water soon with change of language With the Riksbank on track to raise interest rates this year, it is likely to test the water soon by dropping its pledge to loosen policy further if necessary. But as inflation expectations in Sweden... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) Housing market activity weakened in January, as high house prices continued to depress buyer demand. Indeed, with newly agreed sales still falling, buyers and sellers appear to be in a stand-off –... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The further sharp decline in Egyptian inflation in January, to 17.1% y/y, paves the way for the central bank to embark on an easing cycle at its monetary policy meeting next week. And further ahead... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Production increased dramatically last week, mainly due to revisions to the historical data. However, output is growing much more quickly than many expected which should continue to put downward... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC slightly less dovish, tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but recent comments from Governor Glapinski suggest that he is becoming increasingly concerned about the strength of the labour market. We think... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) Concerns that mortgage rates are set to rise gave both refinancing and home purchase mortgage activity a significant boost in January. But, with mortgage rates now at four-year highs, and no... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage approvals drop in response to rate hike 2017 ended with no sign of a revival in the housing market. Indeed, coming on top of already high prices and subdued house price expectations, the rate hike led to a sharp dip in mortgage approvals... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.2% y/y last month, coming alongside weakness in the latest hard activity data and dovish comments from central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, means we now... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
