UK Commercial Property Outlook Property will hold on to recent gains in 2018 The upswing in commercial property capital values is approaching its end. But unlike past cycles, capital values are more likely to plateau than to fall materially over the forecast horizon, at least... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2018 to be the year for platinum We expect the platinum market to be broadly in balance this year, after a sizeable surplus in 2017. However, the recent price increase means that this is already largely factored into prices. As such... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Is the party over? Commodity prices started 2018 on a high, bolstered by optimism about global growth prospects and the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. However, we think there are now clear signs that growth in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) The deluge of hard data for December provides further evidence that it was the domestic demand and the services sector that drove the pick-up in growth in Q4. However, temporary distortions mean that... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Will manufacturing continue to outperform? The manufacturing industry in the Philippines has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years. Although the sector should continue to grow strongly in the near term, the medium-term outlook... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Market turmoil won’t derail expansion The recent sell-off on the stock market would have to continue for much longer before it started to have a major effect on consumer spending in Japan. And with the yen barely changed, the impact on... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru leaves rates on hold, but one more cut still likely Peru’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.00% yesterday as expected, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing. We think that a further drop in inflation in the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4) & CPI (Jan.) Norway’s mainland GDP recorded another strong expansion in Q4, rounding off a pretty good year for the economy. However, inflation slowed sharply in January, highlighting that price pressures remain... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank is right to turn more hawkish Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated again in January, due to another rise in food inflation. But core price pressures are also continuing to build. This was acknowledged by the RBI... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rethinking the yen The yen has strengthened in recent months even though investors are now anticipating a more aggressive pace of tightening by the US Fed. While we expect US long-term interest rates to end this year a... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates close to a four-year high By the end of January mortgage interest rates had risen to close to four-year highs, and the expectation of that rise briefly boosted mortgage applications for home purchase to eight-year highs. But... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers pushing back on renminbi Today’s sharp move in the renminbi underlines the extent to which policymakers are keen to prevent the emergence of strong speculative pressures on the currency. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by Q3. The consensus... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s support now looks set to last While US interest rate expectations for this year have risen into line with our own, this has not undermined the euro as we had anticipated. Instead, markets have focused on the strength of the euro... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No swan song for the dollar We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
