India Economics Update Trade deficit unlikely to widen much further India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level since the taper tantrum in January. But we don’t think this is reason to panic just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: interest rates to be cut by less than most expect The decision by Argentina’s central bank to pause its easing cycle last night was accompanied by another cautious statement, reinforcing our view that interest rates will be cut by less than most... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) While the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus was little changed in Q4, overall net trade seems to have boosted GDP growth. We expect trade to contribute positively to growth again this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for gold and silver prices to reflect the fact that we no longer expect the US dollar to strengthen this year. Nonetheless, we are not inclined to do a U-turn... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions little affected by market sell-off The sell-off in financial markets, which was triggered by a reassessment of the outlook for US inflation and interest rates, has meant that government bond yields have jumped. But these recent moves... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week. Meanwhile, production in the US continued to grow. We expect the surge in US output to push the market back into a surplus this year... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are housing stocks signalling the next correction? In contrast to 2005, the recent surge and subsequent retreat in homebuilder share prices is not a signal that the housing market is set for a damaging correction. Back then, homebuilder share prices... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The resurgence in Vancouver house prices wasn’t enough to prevent a decline in the annual growth rate of the Teranet composite house price index to a 21-month low of 8.7% in January, from 8.9% in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Any respite for the US stock market likely to be short-lived 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Chance of another interest rate hike in May growing The increase in markets’ expectations for official interest rates that occurred in the build-up to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) February Inflation Report proved justified. The MPC revised... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker tone of the January retail sales report, which showed a stagnation in underlying sales and downward revisions to previous months, suggests that real consumption growth is set to slow in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in January, but the bigger story was the broad-based 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices. In three-month annualised terms, core inflation climbed to a... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Surveys point to strong EM export growth in early-2018 Survey-based measures of manufacturers’ export expectations suggest that EM export volume growth is set to strengthen over the coming months. Growth in both EM export volumes and values will, however... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: private sector credit to support pick-up in growth Bank lending to Egypt’s private sector has been weak for a number of years as the government has leaned on local banks to purchase government bonds, crowding out credit to the rest of the economy. But... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
